After downward trend, solar panel prices may rebound as supplies dwindle

LAHORE: After a prolonged period of falling solar panel prices, market experts now anticipate that the prices could either stabilize or even rise in the coming months as import volumes dwindle.

The rapid decline in solar module prices over the past few months spurred a surge in imports, as buyers rushed to meet the increasing demand for renewable energy solutions. However, recent data shows a stark reversal of this trend. In September 2024, Pakistan’s solar panel imports fell to 1,010MW, a sharp 63 per cent drop from the peak imports of 2,762MW recorded in April. The decline has been ongoing, with imports in August at 1,121MW, indicating a continuous downward trajectory.

The steep drop in imports is largely attributed to shipment delays and other logistical challenges. As a result, the current stock of solar panels is mainly leftover from previous months. While immediate price hikes are not expected, the supply chain issues signal the possibility of price increases as inventory levels shrink.

Earlier this year, the dramatic fall in solar panel prices led to a surge in imports by domestic, commercial and industrial consumers, who saw solar energy as a buffer against rising electricity costs. However, as imports decline, market insiders warn that the existing supply may only be sufficient for the next few months. This tightening supply could result in longer wait times for new shipments if demand rises or shipments face further delays.

According to industry experts, prices have now stabilized after reaching their lowest point. Any further price drops seem unlikely, especially given the decreasing availability of stock. Consumers who have been waiting for additional price reductions may risk losing out as inventory depletes, making future purchases more expensive or delayed.

Experts are advising potential buyers to act now, as the current prices and inventory offer an optimal opportunity for investment. The solar panel market is expected to remain stable for now, but dwindling supplies could lead to disruptions in delivery if demand spikes.

The solar panel import boom was driven by the increasing demand for cheaper, renewable energy amid rising electricity prices and energy shortages. Global declines in solar panel prices made the technology more accessible, prompting a shift towards solar power in Pakistan. However, the recent slowdown in imports raises concerns about the future availability of solar panels in the market, potentially leading to a price rebound as supply diminishes.