Imran Khan is currently in the process of rehabilitating himself after facing initial pressure following the events of May 9. He is no longer apologetic about the actions of the perpetrators on that day and is openly defending party's actions, which he refers to as a reaction in front of military installations.
Despite the pressure, Imran's party (PTI) has not been completely liquidated. Key figures such as Omar Ayub, Farrukh Habib, Murad Saeed and Hammad Azhar among others are still standing by his side. However, some of his key lieutenants, including Fawad Chaudhry, Assad Omar and Pervaiz Khattak, not providing him with any support though, are even reluctant to criticise him. They are weighing the possibility of him becoming politically stronger as a result of these challenges.
The PTI Chairman still has a sizable support base, notably in Punjab. The PMLN, his major competitor, is attempting to remake itself. For more than 29 years, the PMLN has dominated elections in Punjab. The electorate of the PMLN has been steadfast despite multiple attempts to undermine it. However, the party has suffered serious losses as a result of the tremendous inflation that has been seen during the last 14 months. PMLN currently strongly depends on the backing of the residents of "Androon" Lahore.
There will undoubtedly be ongoing debates for years to come concerning the PMLN's choice to assume government despite being fully aware of the potential damage to its support among voters. But, the party's leader, Nawaz Sharif, will continue to receive ideological backing all the way to the very end.
However, "Androon" Lahore has undergone significant modifications. The Kashmiri migrants who have historically been the PMLN's core are now predominantly backing the PTI, and even the merchants are divided on the issue.
The governance of the caretaker government in KP, controlled by the JUI and coalition partners like the ANP, sends a wrong message: these parties have not learned any lessons in improving governance, even after witnessing hardship during Imran Khan's political tenure.
This perception of "business as usual" by PPP, PMLN and JUI will only strengthen Imran Khan's narrative that the establishment is willing to support corrupt politicians from these parties who hinder reform.
It is important to note the dislike for Imran Khan does not automatically translate into support for the PMLN and PPP. The more tainted and ineffective the governance of these parties, the more it will tarnish the reputation of the current establishment, and bolster the PTI Chairman's dwindling position.
If the governance of caretakers in KP and Punjab is any indication, it does not bode well for the ensuing caretaker governments at the federal level, as well as in Sindh and Balochistan. This further provides ammunition for Imran Khan to capitalise on the disillusionment of the people against these parties.
Imran Khan's diplomatic efforts are starting to show some results. His meeting with the IMF gave him a renewed sense of purpose, which he used to uplift the spirits of his demoralised workers, supporters and followers. Surprisingly, even Israeli support came his way, although it may be more of a burden than an asset for any politician in Pakistan.
The audacity of the Israeli representative in the UN, criticising Pakistan for human rights while conveniently ignoring their own actions in Gaza and the West Bank, was evident. However, Imran managed to gain support from Jewish quarters through possibly his former in-laws. This could potentially put pressure on Pakistani authorities in the future, as the Israeli lobby has strong connections in Western capitals, including Washington.
As for his legal issues, there is no clear strategy from the PMLN-led government on whether to put Imran on a military court or an anti-terrorism court. Perhaps PMLN does not want to turn him into a hero and would rather leave his legal fate to be sorted out by the caretaker government.
In light of the political challenge posed by the PTI, PMLN is also considering letting the powers that be to deal with Imran Khan and addressing his baggage later.
The longer Imran's legal fate remains uncertain, the less appealing the May 9 events become to the masses, who want to see all culprits, including the masterminds, behind bars. In any Western democracy, the courts would have swiftly punished the perpetrators of the May 9 incident.
Imran Khan, though fallen from grace, is not out of the game yet, insofar, as the public perception is concerned. Jan Achakzai is a geopolitical analyst, a Balochistan politician, and a former media and strategic communications advisor to GOB. He tweets @jan_Achakzai
