US aspirations and Indian independent policy space

The joint statement issued by the US and India after the Biden-Modi meeting elucidated the US is striving to achieve dual objectives to contain China and keep its hegemony intact. The US will do everything and anything to achieve the objectives.

In pursuance of this policy, the US is courting India to play a leading role and assist it in encircling and containing China. Indian geographical location and market size make it a perfect choice for the partnership. Hence, the US offered to India what Modi and India wanted. For example, the US adopted Indian language of terrorism and blamed Pakistan for no reason. It is not new for Pakistan, but India is celebrating it as a big victory.

In this context, the joint statement seems to be an attempt to build an image of India, secure Indian support in containing China and exploit the Indian market. It is not a new phenomenon. The US is implementing this policy for many years. However, in recent years, efforts have been accelerated. The US is presenting the Indian economy as an alternative to China which can surpass the Chinese economy in the near future.

Besides, the US promised to support Indian dream of becoming a permanent member of the UN Security Council. The statement overwhelmed the Indian government and community. In return, the US is consolidating its position in the Indian market, especially in the fields of technology.

It is pertinent to highlight here technology is of prime importance for the US. This is the field where US is facing staunch competition and conceding space to China. The US considers it against its national interests and is putting all efforts to halt the rise of China.

It is also apparent from the words of President Trump when he said, “US cannot allow any country to surpass the US in modern and future technologies”. President Biden is implementing this policy by creating a special technology centre at the CIA and introducing CHIPS and Science Act.

That’s why, the US has expedited efforts to secure new markets which can help achieve the objective, and India seems to be one of the best choices. Therefore, America is offering India a long-term mechanism for technological cooperation.

According to the joint statement, the leadership of both countries agreed to enhance cooperation in the fields of space, artificial intelligence, semiconductors, information technology, Semiconductor Supply Chain and Innovation Partnership, among others. Technology is also a leading element to steer defence cooperation.

The statement said India and US showed commitment to tackling issues of policy and regulations to foster cooperation in modern defence technologies. The MoU between General Electric and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited to build GE F-414 jet engines and US-India Defence Acceleration Ecosystem (INDUS-X) were cited as a good example of cooperation. INDUS-X is considered a vital initiative as it talks about building a network of universities, startups, industry and think tanks with the objectives to innovate and co-produce. In return, the US secured the leading role of India in QUAD which is an anti-China initiative.

However, we will have to wait how technological cooperation in civil and defence can benefit India due to two reasons. The US is opposing China for the same reason and is working relentlessly to become hub of semiconductor industry.

The question is how the US will help India become a major production house of semiconductors or a player in the technological field.

Despite such offers and image-building campaigns, the question is whether India will be an alternative to China. Let’s try to get the answer from the facts and data. First, the economic rationale indicates India will have to grow over 10pc for decades to match China.

In 2018, Times of India published a comparison of India-China GDP growth rate and its contribution to GDP in absolute terms. It highlighted that despite the fact Indian GDP growth rate (7.5pc) being higher than China’s (6.5pc), the addition to GDP for India ($215 billion) is very small as compared to China’s ($1188 billion).

Moreover, it was estimated India will have to grow by 40pc to match China.

Second, both countries have entirely different systems, and the Indian system has inherent flaws. In the words of Lee Kuan, Singapore Prime Minister, the caste system is the real enemy of merit in India. Second, human capital is another indicator which does not support India. While starting reforms, China made education compulsory for every individual, which helped country drive growth through science and technology. Unfortunately, it is not happening in the case of India. Third, hyper globalisation drive is in reverse which will be a major problem in realising the Indian dream. Fourth, China has devised its own formula of development, while India is following the Western liberal model. Lastly, Hinduism is a new phenomenon which is further complicating the situation.

We can infer two key lessons. First, India will not be able to overcome China in the foreseeable future.

It needs to rationalise its expectations. Second, in pursuance of this dream, India is losing its policy independence to the US.

It is feared the US will use this policy space to achieve its objectives at the cost of Indian interests. It can also lead to hot conflict in the region which will not be good for anyone, including the US.