Ukraine’s attack

Ukraine has launched its much-awaited counteroffensive against Russia with the aim to recapture the areas occupied by Russia and force Russian troops to retreat.

According to Western media reports, Ukrainian forces launched the counteroffensive in at least three areas. The Russian military and government officials have also confirmed the attack. But both sides are offering contradictory claims.

According to Ukrainian Deputy Defence Minister Hanna Mailer, the Ukrainian offensive is “taking place in several directions.” Ukrainian officials have not yet provided the full details of the recently launched attack.

Russian President Vladimir Putin claims that “Ukraine’s large-scale counteroffensive has not been successful in any area.”

Russia’s defence ministry claims to have resisted a large-scale attack by Ukraine in the eastern Donetsk region. In its statement, the Russian military has claimed to have killed 250 Ukrainians and destroyed a number of armoured vehicles used in the assault.

These figures and claims alone are enough to show the intensity of the battle that has been going on since June 4. This is just the beginning of an offensive that might continue for the next four months. In the coming weeks and months, more intense battles are likely to take place on different fronts.

It is not easy to verify the claims made by both sides. Russia and Ukraine are engaged in a huge propaganda war. Ukraine has the advantage in this war because it is backed by Western powers – Western media is helping the Ukrainian government to spread its propaganda.

Independent Western military experts say that the current offensive is just the beginning. The Ukrainian forces are testing the strength of the Russian defences on different fronts. The battle – which will gain strength in the coming weeks – is likely to result in more deaths, destruction and miseries. More soldiers will be killed on both sides. The working class in Ukraine is already suffering economic difficulties caused by the war. The Ukrainian economy is in tatters, and the country is surviving on Western aid and loans.

The counteroffensive is likely to continue throughout summer and might end in the beginning of autumn. It could also prove to be a defining moment in this war that started 15 months ago. The Ukrainian government has played a big gamble. The failure of Ukrainian forces to break through Russian defences to recapture the occupied territory would have serious consequences.

It is difficult to predict the exact outcome of this war at this stage but Russians clearly have the advantage against Ukraine. Russia has more powerful military equipped with modern weapons. Ukraine has a formidable army but it depends on Nato for military hardware and supplies.

The Russian economy is still doing well despite the severe sanctions imposed by the US and its allies. But it will be wrong to deny the fact that sanctions do have some impact on the Russian economy. Russia’s GDP growth has shrunk and inflation runs high in the country. The economic situation is hurting the poor in Russia, and the sanctions have affected most sectors as well as businesses and individuals.

The sanctions have not crippled the Russian economy as dangerously as the US and its allies intended. They have also failed to completely isolate Russia from the rest of the world. China is a major factor in this situation. Chinese help and cooperation enable the Russia to withstand the pressure imposed by the West. So Russia is still in the position to spend more money on the war. The Russian war industry is working round the clock to produce more weapons. Russia has the second largest military industrial complex in the world. So it is not dependent on other countries for essential military supplies.

The Ukrainian economy is in shambles. Most of the country’s infrastructure has been destroyed. The Ukrainian economy is facing major disruptions in energy, medicines and food supplies. Western powers have already donated billions of dollars to the Ukrainian government and continue to supply tanks, missiles, rockets and other military equipment to Ukrainian military.

The Ukrainian government is desperately looking to recapture some of the territory occupied by Russian forces. Ukraine wants to end the stalemate-like situation in this war to put pressure on Russia to start the meaningful peace negotiations. If this attempt fails to push Russia on the back foot, Russia will strike back to cause more damage to the demoralized military.

The continued war will not solve anything. China has tried to broker a peace deal between Russia and Ukraine, but it failed as the US and the EU showed no interest in the Chinese-led peace negotiations. The recent offensive means that the two sides are not thinking about peace or ending this bloody war.

The writer is a freelance journalist.