D-Day – almost

After a few weeks of will-he-won’t-he, we finally have an announcement by PTI Chairman Imran Khan – or do we? While Imran has announced a date for the dissolution of the Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa assemblies, the date is set five days into the future. We know how quickly fortunes, alliances and intentions change in politics; though the PTI has clarified it needs these days for the National assembly resignations process. For now, it seems the PTI (and its ally the PML-Q) is set to resign from the assemblies and go for fresh elections at least in Punjab and KP. During his video address to the Lahore jalsa Saturday night, flanked by the Punjab and KP chief ministers, Imran thanked the CMs for their ‘sacrifice’ and warned the government not to delay the elections. That done, the ball is back in the PDM’s court: will the government opt for a legal recourse in challenging any dissolution in the courts, or move a vote of no-confidence, or just let the PTI dissolve the assemblies and go for elections in both provinces?

Challenging the dissolution through a VONC or a legal petition would make the most sense. As talk goes, there is a group within the main ruling party that wants to move a vote of no-confidence in the Punjab Assembly on Monday so that the assembly cannot be dissolved. On the other hand, there are also voices that say the PTI should be allowed to dissolve both assemblies without any hassle so that Imran has no governmental protection left to spare him being arrested or any government machinery to help him campaign in an election year. Whatever the PML-N decides, one thing is quite clear: even if both provincial assemblies are dissolved, there is not much chance that the PDM government will go for general elections in the entire country.

As far as the dissolution decision goes, if the PTI were to eventually go for it, the party is already in majority in the Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Assembly and has ruled the province for more than nine years now. By most analyses, if an election is held in KP, it would be easy for the PTI to win again. However, some believe that if the PDM parties make seat adjustments and campaign for a joint candidate, some dent can still be made.

The bigger challenge remains Punjab. When the assemblies are eventually dissolved, caretaker setups in both provinces will have to call for elections within 90 days. But there are fears within the PTI that the caretaker setup would not stay just for 90 days but may stay on longer than constitutionally mandated. If this happens, it would be a signal that elections will not be held even after this nuclear option. It was being reported that the PML-Q had asked the PTI for seat adjustment and some other guarantees before dissolving the assembly. There are rumours that some headway has been made on that account. For the Elahis, it makes sense because if elections are held in Punjab and if the PTI forms a government, there is little chance of Chaudhry Pervaiz Elahi becoming a CM again. If they have sacrificed familial relations, they would need some sort of guarantees by the PTI. There is also the matter of Imran’s record with allies and friends not being too comforting (ala Tareen, Aleem and others). Overall, this seems to be quite an unnecessary exercise by the PTI: the government will hardly buckle and go for general elections; the umpire is no longer ready to raise a finger for anyone; and the economy can barely manage to get by – holding any kind of elections will require money we don’t have.