2026 El Nino alert: World may witness ‘exceptionally record high’ global temperatures

The world is set to witness new harsh realities of climate change as scientists warn that El Nino may return this year, pushing the global temperatures to record high.

According to the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), there is a 50-60 percent chance of developing during the July-September period and beyond.

But, the NOAA warns that the accuracy of the forecast is considerably low as this is far too early to predict El Nino in 2026.

What is El Nino?

In climatology, El Nino is one of the important events responsible for changing the weather patterns. When we talk about El Nina, the name of its cooler sister, La Nina, also tags along.

Think of El Nino (the boy) and La Nina (the girl) as the Earth’s way of “sloshing” warm water back and forth across the Pacific Ocean, known as the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO).

Normally strong winds blow from the Americas toward Asia, keeping warm water in the west and cool water in the east. When this balance disrupts, it changes weather patterns all over the world.

El Nino occurs occasionally, roughly every 2-7 years and typically stays for a year or longer. El Nino is followed by La Nina and there is a “neutral” phase between these two events.

What happens in El Nino and La Nina?

El Nino occurs when usual winds weaken or start blowing the opposite way. As a result, the eastern Pacific gets much warmer than usual, leading to heavier rain in the Americas and droughts in Australia and Indonesia.

During La Nina, the normal east-to-west trade winds get supercharged and blow much harder than toward Asia, pushing warm waters further west towards the coasts of Australia and south-east Asia.

As a result, the cold water rises from the deep ocean to fill this gap, calling it upwelling. Hence, the Pacific becomes much colder than usual.

The Southern US faces drier conditions and heavy downpour becomes common in Asia.

Uptick in global temperatures

El Nino also intensifies heatwave across the tropics. According to some meteorologists' predictions, a typical El Nino event can cause a temporary 0.1-0.2℃ uptick in the global mean temperature.

The last El Nino happened in 2023-2024, making the 2023 second highest year on record and placing the 2024 on top.

Carlo Buontempo, director of the European Union's Copernicus Climate Change Service said “2026 could be another record-breaking year" if El Nino appears this year.

But if it appears later in this year, the world will experience its hottest impacts in 2027, said Tido Semmler, a climate scientist at Ireland's National Meteorological Service.

Jennifer Francis of the Woodwell Climate Research Center claims, “When El Niño develops, we’re likely to set a new global temperature record.”

Method to calculate El Nino and La Nina

In February, NOAA adopted a new method of determining El Nino and La Nina events. The old methodology consisted of the old Oceanic Nino Index (ONI), measuring sea surface temperature anomalies against a fixed 30-year historical average.

The new method, the Relative Oceanic Nino Index (RONI), compares the temperatures of the east-central Pacific to the current average temperatures of the rest of the tropics, making it a “more reliable way.”