Asteroid 2024 YR4: Will a Moon collision send fireballs to Earth?

Astronomers have confirmed that asteroid 2024 YR4 no longer poses a risk to Earth; however, there is a 4.3% chance it will strike the Moon on December 22, 2032.

Although 2024 YR4 previously noted a threat to our planet, scientists are now focused on the lunar trajectory, warning that an impact could be “the most energetic lunar impact ever recorded in human history.”

In line with a new study “Observation Timelines for the Potential Lunar Impact of Asteroid 2024 YR4”, such as collisions would create a massive crater on the lunar surface approximately 1 km in diameter. The event could also cause an “unusual illumination phenomenon, generating a bright flash visible from Earth for hours after the impact.

First spotted in December 2024, Asteroid 2024 YR4 is speeding through space at over 38,000 miles per hour. This space rock gained prominence as the first asteroid to necessitate a “coordinated international planetary defense response” following mounting concerns over a potential Earth impact. While initial assessments are now positive, a recent study states that the current trajectory presents a “rare and valuable scientific opportunity.”

Scientists believe the asteroid consists of silicate rock that originated from a group of asteroids in the central Main Belt between Mars and Jupiter. Although the threat to our planet has been downgraded, it had previously placed the probability of an Earth impact at 3.1% for the year 2032.