Asteroid 2024 YR4: Earth safe, moon at risk

Asteroid 2024 YR4, once perceived as a threat, is no longer on a collision course with the planet Earth. However, there is a small chance of hitting the moon, creating a lunar impact.

2024 YR4, founded on December 27, 2024, was estimated to be around 60 meters, about the size of a football field or a large building.

Initially, scientists became concerned that there was 3% chance that it could hit Earth on December 22, 2032. This prediction created a lot of buzz and put it at the top of the asteroid risk list for the time being.

The James Webb Space Telescope observations ruled out any chance of it hitting the Earth.

Even though the Earth is safe, the asteroid still has a 4% chance of colliding with the moon on the given date. This might seem like a cool cosmic show, but a collision can pose a potential danger and create a huge debris field.

This debris could send several small rocks into the Earth’s orbit. This could be a threat to the astronauts and satellites on the International Space Station.

A recent paper published by NASA scientists argues that the best option to prevent a lunar impact is to destroy the asteroid. They are considering two possible options:

The first option is “deflection” by nudging the asteroid to divert its path, like NASA’s DART mission. Scientists do not know the exact weight or density of 2024 YR4, and a wrong calculation could accidentally send it toward the Earth.

The second and preferred option is the “destruction” method. It does not need much precise information about the asteroid’s mass. The paper discusses the “kinetic disruption mission,” which would mean hitting it with something big enough to tear it apart.

Ironically, some scientists are recommending a “nuclear option,” which involves detonating a nuclear explosive device near the asteroid to vaporise its surface and break it into pieces.

What is an asteroid?

An asteroid is a small rocky body that orbits the sun. They are also known as minor planets or planetoids.