Imran’s toughest assignment

The political parties have four days left to file suggestions/evidences, if any, and details about cases of alleged “organized rigging” in the election 2013 with the three-member Judicial Commission that will start hearing next week, but the man whose entire political career is at stake is none other than the PTI chief Imran Khan. Can he prove his case, leading to fresh elections? It is “now or never” for him.
In the last one week, he has toned down his stance saying that even if the JC findings don’t come according to his expectations, it may ensure “fair and impartial” elections in future. He may be right because the JC findings can include tough recommendations.
The question before the JC would not be of mere rigging, because such cases are already pending with the election tribunals, but here the matter would relate to an organized and systematic rigging to “benefit” the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) in the election 2013.
It also needs to establish the alleged connivance of the Election Commission of Pakistan, former Chief Justice of Pakistan (CJP) Justice Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry and the PML-N in this conspiracy (if any).
Secondly, the question of beneficiary would also be an interesting one to be tackled by the commission. If the PML-N vote bank had a “record increase,” which the PTI and Imran claimed was fake, the PTI also got a record “vote bank” compared to 2002 elections since it had boycotted 2008 elections. There are six other political parties that emerged as direct or indirect beneficiaries.
But Imran has his own case to establish for which he and his legal team have been working day and night for the last one year, and now he looks so confident that he has started calling 2015 as the election year. So, one has to wait and see how his evidence will be convincing for the JC that will also probe allegations on its own.
High-profile personalities are likely to appear before the JC which have either been blamed for their role in the alleged rigging or they were the beneficiaries. Even Prime Minister Mohammad Nawaz can make a surprise presence besides his brother and Punjab Chief Minister Mian Shahbaz Sharif.
Some key figures of interim government — former CJP Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry, former SC judge Khalilur Rehman Ramday, former CEC Justice (retired) Fakhruddin G. Ebrahim and former secretary Election Commission Ashfaq Ahmad — can appear on their own or they may be asked to appear.
The JC can also look into some of intelligence agencies’ reports, the role of the army and the administration concerned etc.
All this will make the Judicial Commission the most high-profile body to probe for the first time an allegation of “organized rigging.” Unprecedented media hype is expected since all the proceedings would be in the “open court.”
But, prior to the formal proceedings, the JC may face a legal question about its formation in the presence of Article 225 of the Constitution, the status of the election tribunals, hearing petitions of different candidates, appeals etc.
“These are not easy questions and one has to see how the commission, headed by Chief Justice of Pakistan, would address, if challenged or came up before him,” senior lawyer, Mr. Salman Akram Raja told this scribe.
The Supreme Court Bar Association and some other constitutional experts intend to challenge the JC formation. If all set and done, the next two months would be most crucial for the future political discourse of this country. But, either the commission declares election 2013 as “rigged” and recommends fresh polls or comes out with other findings, it will not hurt the continuity of democratic process.
While the JC would also investigate the TORs agreed upon by the PML-N and PTI, it is most crucial for Imran and the PTI to establish the case of organized and systematic rigging, involvement of parties and individuals like Mian Nawaz Sharif, the ECP and former CJP Iftikhar Muhammad Chaudhry.
Both the PML-N and PTI are confident that they would emerge as “winners,” but there are few other factors which can also play a crucial role in this first high-profile Investigation into the alleged organized rigging.
The ECP also has a tough task ahead to defend its position and challenge the claim of “organized rigging” or that they were “under pressure” or part of any conspiracy.
The ECP may also find itself in a difficult position as its two key figures in 2013 — Justice (R) Fakhruddin G. Ebrahim and former ECP Secretary Ashfaq Ahmad — are not part of the ECP. Both have different views about the fairness of elections.
Mr. Ashfaq’s statement could be crucial, provided he has the evidence. But, he had stated that he does not have evidences to prove his allegations. Now, if he could place some, the investigation can take an interesting turn. Though Fakhru Bhai is not in good health, he may still like to record his statement, depending on his health.
Secondly, if the elections were so rigged as has been alleged, the question of smooth transfer of power at the center and in all the provinces may also come.
At least eight political parties emerged as direct or indirect beneficiaries of election 2013. Among the indirect beneficiaries were Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam JUI-F and Pakhtunkhwa Milli Awami Party (PkMAP).
What can lead to the conclusion that there was an organized rigging in election 2013 and the PML-N, headed by Mian Nawaz Sharif, was involved in it? It’s the key to the JC’s findings.
So, Imran has the job to do and that too with evidences, which he claimed he has. If he succeeds in satisfying the JC, it can lead to fresh elections and prime minister may step down.
In the JC, the question is not about the number of election petitions pending with the election tribunals against individual cases, but the investigation which could lead to the basic question of systematic rigging.
Imran may face few disadvantages when the question of establishing “conspiracy” for organized rigging comes. Was there any meeting of the alleged conspirators, any telephonic conversation, any written and specific directives from the authorities concerned or parties to the ECP or ROs to manipulate elections?
Yes, there could be circumstantial evidences like the one often pointed out by the former secretary ECP, the composition of the ECP, according to the Constitution, as questioned by few experts or some issues related to the former CJP. He will also be replying why Nawaz Sharif “announced” his party’s victory much before the final result.
But, the biggest problem, which Imran can face, would be his own “confidence” about the nomination of CEC Fakhruddin G. Ebrahim and the former CJP.
In the last 126 days of “dharna” besides his campaign since 2013, he had finally got the moment to prove his case. It’s certainly now or never for Imran Khan. So, good luck to both Imran and Nawaz Sharif, but democracy is in no danger.
The writer is the senior analyst and columnist for GEO, The News and Jang.