The Arab Spring established new political trends by increasing the importance and influence of the concentrated integration of world politics. Social media played a key role in this as it spread a revolutionary wave throughout the region within a short span of time. This phenomenon explicitly defined new political aspects and illustrated how crises and conflicts no longer have physical boundaries, the Paris attack being a clear example. The emergence of Isil in Iraq due to a political void and its rise in the global political picture proved to be a major game-changer in the ongoing turmoil in the Muslim world. Isil took advantage of the socio-economic disparity among the people of Iraq as a result of the US invasion and the Shia regime that followed. The group successfully managed to conquer large portions of land in Iraq and Syria, and is also gaining control in Sinai, Yemen, Libya, Saudi Arabia and the Horn of Africa. And now they seem to be moving on to Afghanistan and Pakistan. After establishing a strong foothold in Iraq and Syria in 2014, Isil declared the ‘Khorasan’ chapter to be their next venture. They announced the ex-amir of the TTP for the Orakzai Tribal Agency, Hafiz Saeed Khan, as their governor for Khorasan province in January 2015. According to their map, the Khorasan province includes present-day Afghanistan, Pakistan, India, some parts of Central Asia other nearby areas. The main factor behind Isil opening up this chapter was the pledging of allegiance to Isil from different splinter groups of the TTP. The situation was a little tricky as Mullah Akhtar Mansoor was already considered the amir of the faithful in Afghanistan. However, the Zabul incident showed that Isil still has a strong support base in Afghanistan, despite the Taliban’s presence. The cruelty and brutality in Zabul explains that they are capable of anything when it is a matter of achieving their goals. Apart from claims that Isil’s training centers are formed by different insurgent groups in the tribal areas of Pakistan, the main threat lies in the strong support base of the organisation within the urban areas of Pakistan. We have witnessed how people from all over the world have joined the group in Iraq and Syria. A major proportion of their membership consists of the educated youth of Europe, Africa, Pakistan, Central Asia and the US. Different intelligence agencies have reported that fighters from about 80 different nationalities have come under the flag of the militant organisation. We have seen pro-Isil wall-chalking in different cities of Pakistan. The Safoora bus attack in May 2015 too raised questions regarding the emergence of Isil in Pakistan. According to sources in the security forces, the militants wanted to claim the attack as an act by Isil and formally announce the beginning of its operations in Pakistan. The lack of socio-economic justice and political instability in Pakistan are significant factors which could be exploited by Isil and help them gain ground in this region. Furthermore, the most fundamental factor that needs to be contained is the polarisation between secular and religious groups in Pakistan. More importantly, it instigates an irrational reaction by militant forces, thus creating a vicious cycle. This polarisation must be contained immediately. A suppression of religious ideas also happened in Syria and eventually led to a state of conflict. Unfortunately in Pakistan, this polarisation is providing a breeding ground for the ideology of Isil to expand. According to media reports, several Pakistanis have joined Isil in the Middle East. A few militants have even made claims about the arrival of Isil representatives from the Middle East into the tribal areas of Pakistan. This could prove to be a serious threat to the security of Pakistan. Alongside the military operations in Pakistan, an effective political strategy is also necessary which must be devised with the help of religious scholars and other stakeholders. Nevertheless, Pakistan must play an active role in Middle Eastern politics. Considering Pakistan’s place on the global stage, we should try to initiate a political process in Iraq and Syria. Iraq and Syria have already lost their original boundaries and chances of their restoration are very low. More importantly, the recent political crisis in Turkey and the official trip of Pakistan’s COAS is vital to take into account in these circumstances, as some analysts have expressed fears that the re-mapping of Turkish borders might also be underway. Pakistan has the capacity to control the expanding fire in the Muslim world, but it has to remain neutral. The recent statement of supporting Russian moves against Isil must be revisited. Pakistan must strongly discourage the involvement of global state actors in the Muslim world and should promote a political peace process in which illegitimate entities like Isil are brought in for a political dialogue. The augmenting blind aggression by the Western world in Syria and the retaliation in Paris will further increase the support base for Isil and anti-West sentiments among Muslims who are already suffering from massive military operations. The international community has to initiate peace talks for the Syrian crisis immediately; otherwise the conflict will intensify and move towards a point of no return. The writer is a research analyst. Twitter: @Ali_Jaswal
