First things first. There is a clear-cut difference between a heatwave and the loss of human life. Heatwaves are nature-given but the loss of life is because of an irresponsible state and a non-responsive democracy (not because of the heatwave). The other clear-cut difference is: the heat-wave was inescapable but the loss of life was avoidable – heatwave nature-made, loss of life man-made. Imagine: the state has killed a thousand of its own citizens. For the record: the heatwave did not kill the rich; only the poor died. So it is not the heatwave that killed; it’s poverty. And the state failed to save its poor. Heatwaves form “when high pressure aloft (from 10,000 ft to 25,000 ft) strengthens and remains over a region for several days.” This is the 21st century and heatwaves can be predicted. The at-risk population – the old, the very young and the sick – can be warned. Preventive measures are really simple: “drinking plenty of cool liquids and avoiding excessive heat, especially in unventilated spaces.” Ahmedabad has done it. In 2010, the heatwave killed more than 1,300. In 2013, the Ahmedabad Municipal Corporation developed an early warning and heat adaptation action plan – simple, inexpensive measures like public awareness, early warning and capacity building. This year’s death toll: 7. Question: Who put up heat stroke centres in Karachi? Answer: Pakistan Rangers (Sindh). Just look at how we the civilians are giving away governance to the boots in a platter. Consider this: The annual budget for the National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) is Rs2 per year for every man, woman and child in Pakistan. Consider this: Budget 2015-16 has allocated Rs4.6 million per day for every day of the year for the prime minister’s foreign tours. Now on to power. What really is power all about? Power has three dimensions. One, the ability to change surrounding conditions. Two, the ability to influence other institutions. Three, the ability to negotiate with foreign powers. Question: Which one of the three dimensions of power is still with the civilian-elected government? The GHQ’s power rests on two pillars: hard power and soft power. The GHQ’s hard power is its 2.924 tanks, 2,828 armoured fighting vehicles, 465 self-propelled guns, 3,278 towed artillery and 134 multiple launcher rocket systems. The GHQ’s soft power is its popularity among the masses, its favourable ratings in public opinion surveys and its image in the public eye. The PML-N’s power also rests on two pillars: hard power and soft power. The PML-N’s hard power is its 14,874,104 voters, 189 MNAs and 26 senators. The PML-N’s soft power is the prime minister’s personal popularity, the party’s favourable ratings, its image and the PML-N’s investment into public health and education. From May 2011 to June 2015: There has been little or no change in the GHQ’s hard power (almost the same number of tanks, armoured fighting vehicles, self propelled guns, towed artillery and multiple launcher rocket systems). On the 2nd of May 2011, the day that Osama bin Laden was killed a kilometre from the Pakistan Military Academy at Kakul, the GHQ’s soft power was at its weakest. Since the 29th of November 2013, the day that General Raheel Sharif became the 15th Chief of Army Staff, the GHQ’s soft power has been surging like never before. On the 15th of June 2014, the day DG-ISPR Major-General Asim Saleem Bajwa announced the launching of a “comprehensive operation against foreign and local terrorists”, the GHQ’s soft power just went through the roof. As of the 28th of June 2015, the GHQ’s soft power is at a peak not seen in the past several decades. Conclusion: The PML-N is on a losing streak not because of a change in its hard power (14,874,104 voters, 189 MNAs and 26 senators) but because it’s soft power has crashed. And the GHQ is on a winning streak not because of a change in its hard power but because it’s soft power is at a peak never seen before. The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad. Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com. Twitter: @saleemfarrukh
