DUBAI: The lines in Karachi became clear on Wednesday with the prime minister standing with the law enforcement authorities, and the politicians — the PPP and the MQM — taking positions on the other side, indicating major changes inKarachi and Sindh in coming days and weeks. By keeping both Governor Ishratul Ebad and Chief Minister Qaim Ali Shah away from key security briefings to the prime minister at a military base, the message was clear that the operations in Karachi will have to proceed without these political figures. Their stay in their top political positions thus may just be a matter of time as it has now become obvious that they are no longer wanted. The chief minister, fearing a break-up of the silent PPP-PML-N understanding, immediately rushed to his leader Asif Ali Zardari to brief him. He had earlier conveyed Mr Zardari’s message to PM Sharif minutes ago. But so far the public positions of the PPP and MQM are closer to each other. CM Shah has opposed the removal of barriers from key points, including the Bilawal House, and has used the Sindh government cover to keep the barriers. Information Minister Sharjeel Memon told the media that for security reasons the Sindh government had placed the barriers at Bilawal House and so these could not be removed. On the other hand the Rangers stated publicly that all barriers had to go and the main barrier outside General Musharraf’s Karachi residence was removed. The tone and tenor of this statement was also ominous and obvious.These conflicting and confrontational positions between the federal government (Army and Rangers) and the Sindh government (PPP and MQM) are untenable and now a decision will have to be taken. What is obvious is that the Rangers/ Army cannot roll back the Karachi operation, no matter how many obstacles, both political and administrative, are erected. Thus the consequences will have to be faced by the governor and the chief minister. Bringing a new governor to replace Dr Ishratul Ebad would not be an issue or difficult for Islamabad. But if the Sindh government also takes hardline positions, then the situation could deteriorate as PM Sharif will then have to decide whether he takes Mr Zardari’s side or imposes governor’s rule in Sindh. If that happens, it would be somewhat ironical and nature’s justice as Mr Zardari had early in his tenure proclaimed governor’s rules in Punjab, removing the Punjab government and Mr Sharif may just be paying back that favour. What is clear is that Karachi has now entered a decisive phase and one misstep or a wrong decision could overturn the democratic applecart.In such an explosive political and security scenario, the by-election on the Azizabad NA constituency, the home of the MQM, will be a major mistake by the authorities. Though Imran Khan is now ready to take on the MQM in Karachi; if he wins, the Muttahida would cry foul as Rangers and other law enforcement authorities are carrying out an operation inside its headquarters. If the MQM boycotts the poll, the whole exercise will become controversial lacking credibility.If the MQM wins, despite all the adversity, it would be a slap on the face of the authorities and the anti-MQM forces. The possibility of violence is also serious and if Rangers or the Army are used to supervise the poll, politically it would again be a bad decision.The win-win for all would be if the Azizabad poll is put off for a few weeks so that the Karachi operation settles down.
