Punjab cabinet

Punjab finally has a new governor, a new CM and a new cabinet, with eight members having taken oath in the first phase. Ever since Hamza Shehbaz was elected CM Punjab, we have seen many a turn and twist in the fate of the largest province in Pakistan. The ECP de-seated the 25 PTI members who had defected and voted for Hamza. Now by-elections are set to take place on 20 seats next month. Following the decision of the federal government to stay put and not dissolve the National Assembly, the Punjab government seems comfortable now, and there is a strong belief within the PML-N that Hamza is quite confident about the upcoming by-elections whereas we have seen that PTI insiders are worried at there being no direction by the party when it comes to Punjab politics.

Under the circumstances, if the PTI decides to go for another 'long march', would it be possible for those PTI candidates contesting the by-elections to focus on their campaign as each day matters? PTI insiders say they have warned their party leadership to focus on Punjab as without winning a sizable majority in this province, it is difficult to form a government in the centre. If Hamza Shehbaz is able to reconsolidate the PML-N in Punjab after being out of power for three and a half years, that would just further strengthen an already strong PML-N in Punjab. There are also rumours of some sort of agreement between the coalition government and the speaker of the Punjab Assembly to let things run smoothly for now – rumours that cannot be substantiated, though. Whether true or not, Hamza and his coalition partners are confident that unless there is a disturbance at the centre, they can run provincial matters.

Given his father's strong legacy in Punjab, Hamza would probably like to carve out a legacy of his own instead of remaining in his father’s shadow. Unlike Usman Buzdar, the new CM is already quite well-versed in matters of ruling a province as he had worked very closely with Shehbaz Sharif during the PML-N's last tenure. He has been in parliament before, both provincial and national and has also been heavily involved in PML-N’s organisational structure. These things do give him an edge but at the same time, the optics of a father-son duo ruling the country and its largest province are tone-deaf and would make anyone with democratic sensibilities uncomfortable. The future of the Punjab Assembly depends on which way the by-elections go. If the PML-N is able to win a large chunk of these seats, or if any independents win and join the ruling coalition, then things will be easier for CM Hamza Shehbaz. If the PTI wins the majority of these seats, or if those independents who win join the PTI, they can work on getting rid of Hamza. Either way, both parties need to work in Punjab and prove their governance abilities to the people. For the moment, Hamza Shehbaz is in a comfortable position – and a post-Buzdar CM will no doubt be seen with far more favour.