Strategic politics

In their recent round of activity, the opposition parties have come together and decided that a vote of no confidence against Prime Minister Imran Khan could and should be moved in parliament. While the three major opposition parties – the PML-N, JUI-F and the PPP – may have agreed on this strategy, the question is whether the opposition has any chance of succeeding at all and what the scenario would be if it does. The opposition is short of eight members in order to bring about a no-confidence motion in the National Assembly. It carries the embarrassing burden of repeated defeats in the Senate, where it holds a majority – something that has led to inevitable scepticism regarding just how far the opposition is willing to play the role of an opposition, despite all proclamations of overthrowing the government.

In its quest to get its numbers together, the opposition has taken to wooing current PTI allies, first meeting with the MQM and then calling on the PML-Q – a party that figures strongly when it comes to Punjab politics. It would no doubt be a most significant development were the PML-Q to switch sides, but for the time being it seems the opposition will not be getting the Q League on its side of the aisle. In a pointed statement, the PML-Q’s Moonis Elahi has said his party is standing firm with the PTI government. But both the government and the opposition know very well that there are no permanent friends or foes in politics – and in Pakistan the political winds change course sometimes overnight.

So, what are we to make of all this? The PML-N argues that a vote of no confidence can succeed in the National Assembly, possibly with the help of the MQM and disgruntled members of PTI. Whether or not this is based on accurate analysis of the strength of various parties in parliament is unknown. If a no-confidence vote does succeed, and there is argument over whether this is possible, there is also the question of whether the PPP would wish to seek a new election quickly. The party is in some danger of losing its hold on Sindh, and has not reclaimed lost constituencies yet in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. The PML-N argues that a vote of no confidence may not mean immediate elections although it is likely that if the central government falls, provincial governments would follow. There is also the possibility that a new candidate could be elected as prime minister, with mutual consensus, and a national government or caretaker government set up, or elections announced after an interim period. As such it is completely unclear precisely what the opposition strategy is and who is leading the games that are being played. In the background remains the ultimate nod of approval that plays the most important part in Pakistan’s politics. With the opposition and the government both looking like they already have the prize in the bag, political observers wonder where exactly this showdown is leading to. Ideally, the best option for all non-political forces is to remain neutral and let a purely political process take its course but it is highly unlikely that anyone is leaving this factor to chance or benevolence.