A few days ago, I had the opportunity to have a long interaction with Afghan students from universities of Afghanistan and Pakistan. It was heart-breaking to learn about the problems of youth and miseries of people. The dreams of young people are in a shambles? They feel abandoned and betrayed by their own government and world community. Now they are pinning hopes on new government to help them fulfill their dreams. On the other hand, millions of Afghan people are going through terrible situation. They do not have jobs or assistance from world community. Food insecurity and lack of health facilities are the biggest problems right now. They are looking towards world community for urgent help.
The US in collaboration with allies has sanctioned the country, instead of helping them. The US and allies are present Taliban government and lack of democracy as justification of their sanctions. The people of Afghanistan are not satisfied with these excuses. People are questioning, if Taliban are the reason of sanctions or Taliban are so bad, then why the US had a deal with Taliban? Why Taliban were engaged directly to get a peace deal and evacuation of the US and Allied Forces from Afghanistan? Further, people are asking why the US and allies had handed over government to Taliban. Thus, people conclude that it is the US and allies who are responsible for the present mess, not the Taliban.
In this scenario people are asking the world community to cooperate with the Taliban government and unfreeze the Afghan financial resources. It is direly needed to avert the looming humanitarian crises. There are other avenues, where the the US and allies can settle their score with Taliban, if they want to. It is also alarming that neutral countries are also not helping Afghanistan and putting up a lot of conditions to help the Afghan people. Human life must not be battle ground of egos or politics.
Against this backdrop, the OIC will be deliberating on the current humanitarian crises and needs of people. However, the question is, does OIC have the leverage to influence the US and allies’ policies or intentions? Will OIC be interested to help Afghanistan through real time assistance or it will be only act as discussion avenue? Will OIC be able to present any rehabilitation or more specifically economic rehabilitation plan?
First of all, being realistic, I do not see that OIC has any influence or leverage to influence the US and allies. So, one should not pin any hope on this front. I may be wrong in my assumption but the history of OIC urged me to have this assumption. It is evident from the history that OIC was never able to convenience the US and other major powers to solve the issues of Palestine or Kashmir.
Second, there is strong possibility that OIC members, especially the rich Gulf countries can extend hand of cooperation in addition to Pakistan’s generous support.
We have seen in past that Gulf have helped many countries on the humanitarian basis. However, *the question will be, on what conditions these Gulf countries can extend cooperation. By looking at the current situation, it can be assumed that Gulf countries, especially Saudi Arabia will be looking to find a role and create stake in new government of Taliban. It is open secret that Taliban have closer relationship with Iran than many Gulf countries and Gulf countries wants to enhance their relationship with Taliban. It would be interesting to watch how Kingdom of Saudi Arabia plays to get a place in new set up.*
Third, apart from humanitarian aid or assistance, Afghanistan also needs long term investment in road, energy, connectivity and economic infrastructure. The state of infrastructure is extremely poor. Afghanistan was ranked at 161 places on the infrastructure index. Further, weak business environment further complicates the situation. Afghanistan has been ranked at 173rd place on ease of doing business. The ranking of individual indicators also present dismal picture. The worst performing indicators are dealing with construction permits (183), registering property (186), getting electricity (173) paying taxes (178) and trading across border (177). It has given birth to multifaceted problem including food insecurity (12.5 million are severely food insecure, 2019), extremely highly poverty (some estimates suggest more than 80 percent), high job insecurity (85 percent) and low human development index (170th on HDI index).
The situation urged the world to help Afghanistan to move on the ladder of economic growth and development. Thus, it is suggested that OIC should come out with some concrete program. Moreover, the OIC should give a framework of economic development of Afghanistan. Afghanistan Rehabilitation and Economic Integration Fund (AREIF) can be established at OIC platform, to cater the economic and development needs of the Afghanistan. All participating countries must pledge the financial resources for this fund. However, the AREIF must be built as a neutral avenue and other countries like China, USA, EU, etc. should also be invited to join the initiative. Further, a window for the business community can also be created, so they can also contribute in the development of Afghanistan. However, there should be no political games or self-interest of any country. The fund must focus on the needs of Afghanistan and politics can be played at some other time.
Thus, AREIF must be run by professionals not govt officials or business groups. AREIF should be given three major tasks, 1) improve business environment, 2) build human capital, 3) build efficient government machinery. Howbeit, there is one very important point to be kept in mind that Afghanistan does not have any financial resources.
So, there is need to avoid policies of FDI or debt. AREIF must adopt the policy of Built Operate and Transfer (OPT). AREIF should refrain from interfering in the domestic politics of Afghanistan. As in past many initiatives by development agencies and countries like Many organizations and countries like World Bank, EU, DFID, USAID, IDRC, GIZ, European countries, Saudi Arabia, etc. were failed due to political interreference.
Fourth, AREIF can also build linkages with other initiatives in the region and global level like Belt and Road Initiative of China. Afghanistan is situated in between two very important corridors of BRI, China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) and China-Central Asia and West Asia Corridor. So, AREIF can easily build connections with these corridors. Moreover, China can also join AREIF by launching a new corridor with the name of “Corridor of Peace and Prosperity”.
In conclusion, it is good to note that representatives of Taliban government are also attending the meeting. It is suggested that Taliban must try to read the minds of global community and try to address their concerns. Taliban must understand that in this globalized world there is no free lunch. In addition to this, global linkages and integration in global system determine the future of any country and Afghanistan is no exception.
Thus, they need to refine their policies according to ground realities. It will help them not only to avert humanitarian crises but also help them to build prosper and peaceful Afghanistan.
