Beyond statistical manipulation

LAHORE: Governments generally gauge their performance on the basis of improvements made in human indicators and reduction in inequality instead of statistics that are deceptive and can be interpreted both positively and negatively.

As far as the public in general is concerned they have seen the rates of all essential items particularly food increasing by at least 100 percent without corresponding increase in incomes. This includes the rates of wheat flour, sugar and edible oil.

When quoting statistics, we usually take the changes that have taken place in the past one year and then compare it with global increases and trends as it suits us. To give a true picture, the global rates of all commodities in 2018 should have been documented that would indicate our real performance.

It is true that most of the price hikes were due to depreciation of the rupee. The rupee value is still volatile which cannot be justified in view of huge foreign inflows in the country.

Persistent high inflation also contributed to general increase in prices. Most of all, the incompetent administration failed to check the general price hikes during last three years. Meanwhile, administrative failures intensified instead of subsiding.

Aviation was the first chapter in the three years performance report of this government. The pilot license fiasco was totally ignored, which resulted in huge pressure on PIA as well.

The airline is in doldrums, but the government is still claiming that it is reviving. Board of investment has seen few changes of hands. Foreign investment had trickled down to lows of the 1990s.

Ranking in ease of doing business has vastly improved, but the cost of doing business is very high. Investors still want concessions that guarantee them profits through duty protections or otherwise. This government has performed better as far as improvement in environment is concerned, but this is restricted mainly to massive plantation of trees in the country.

Otherwise, the industries continue to throw their toxic affluent in water channels or vacant lands, with many factory chimneys visibly emitting poisonous fumes visible to all. Polluting vehicles also continue to ply on the roads without any checks, while hospital waste can be seen in the garbage. Ban on polythene bags is openly flouted too.

Ministry of Commerce managed to do some good work by eliminating duties on most of the industrial raw materials; however, export industry continues to live off subsidies in power, energy and interest rates.

It is interesting to note that the commerce adviser has regularly pleaded to reinstate zero-rating on export industries so that exporters do not have to first pay the sales tax and then claim refund after exports are executed. The Federal Board of Revenue on the other hand, continues to resist stubbornly.

Pakistan’s exports did increase substantially, while the sales tax on local supplies also registered healthy growth. This shows that two important economic ministries were not on the same page on important policy matters.

Our imports in the last three months have increased at a massive pace that made gains in exports meaningless. The Ministry of Commerce should curb consumptive growth. Even the prime minister has expressed concern over the huge import bill.

There is no point in highlighting the three years of feats achieved by the Petroleum Ministry. Pakistan faced acute petrol shortages two years back and is currently experiencing gas shortages even in the summer mainly due to the ill-conceived policies at the higher level.

Petrol was not imported when its prices nosedived, but the petroleum product rates were lowered in line with global prices. That created chaos and oil marketing companies withheld supplies.

After enquiry, nominal fines were imposed on them. This government regularly fails in buying LNG at the right price and when an acute shortage is imminent, they have to buy it at a very high rate.

As far as power division is concerned, it has been called the Achilles-heel of Pakistan’s economy by the current Minister of Finance.

The government proudly claims that the increase in circular debt has been reduced. The circular debt should have vanished even on the strength of numerous power hikes announced in the past three years.

The tariff for domestic consumers has been increased by 60-80 percent. Barring exporting industries, the remaining industrial sector also braved hefty increases in power tariff.

This government fails to realise that circular debt is because of bad governance, incompetent managers and huge corruption. Nothing has been done in this regard. There was no need to increase tariff had these three concerns been adequately addressed.

Frequent reshuffles at ministries and government institutions have created a mess. It takes time to grasp the situation and by the time a person is ready to implement his plan he is removed.

Poverty has increased; unemployment is as high as ever. The policies of this government have definitely benefited a few, but in doing so, a majority was alienated. It would have been better had the government refrained from boasting the changes it brought about in three years.