Trouble for the PML-N

The PML-N has faced a difficult few years, starting with the Panama Papers and continuing with reports of an increasing rift within the party. While the debate surrounding this issue continues, a new problem has been added to those faced by the party, with Nawaz Sharif denied an extension of his visa to remain in the UK. Nawaz Sharif had travelled to the UK on a visit visa at the end of 2019, on the grounds of health issues. The visa issue is slightly complicated by the fact that Nawaz Sharif's passport also expired in February this year, but there have been cases where people without documents have been permitted to remain in the UK for long periods of time. Nawaz Sharif's visa had been extended three times prior to this. For now, Nawaz Sharif has the right to lodge an appeal and finally approach a court if he deems this necessary. Though experts have ruled out any immediate decision on Nawaz’s visa appeals, if the UK government decides to pursue this to the letter, the former premier may have to prove critical illness or threat to his life for his stay to be extended. He has made it clear that as of now he has sought no asylum in Britain; he also has the freedom to visit or enjoy the status of a guest in a country such as Saudi Arabia or Qatar.

More serious are the other issues surrounding the PML-N and its leadership. Lately Nawaz Sharif and Shahbaz Sharif, in separate statements and interviews, have given conflicting accounts of their perception of matters in the country and what went wrong in the 2018 elections. Nawaz continues to blame institutions and has alleged large-scale rigging in the 2018 polls. In contrast, Shahbaz Sharif has blamed the party defeat on mistakes made by the party itself and has attributed Nawaz's statements to his emotional situation. There is also a clear difference of opinion between Maryam Nawaz and her uncle, with Maryam and her father adopting a far harder line on issues regarding institutions and the running of the country as well as election fraud as compared to the low-key Shahbaz. Party leaders are said to be divided over the issue, although there are suggestions that it is becoming clearer and clearer which leaders stand in which camp.

A possible return of Nawaz Sharif will place the party at a critical juncture: whether to rally behind their leader who has so far negated any kind of reconciliation or take on a more pragmatic approach as espoused by Shehbaz Sharif. This could create a number of problems for the PML-N in the future as it continues its political struggle against the PTI, notably in Punjab where the two parties are the main contenders for power in any future election. With general elections expected two years from now, a fractured PML-N will only help the ruling party at the ballot box. Hence, the apparent glee among PTI leaders at the ongoing tussle between the two ‘narratives’ of the party becoming more complicated with Nawaz’s possible return to the country. It is time the party leadership realises the political cost of the perennial power struggle between the two narratives, before it results in total electoral abandonment by voters who want to see their lawmakers in power.