Power vacuum

War has not ended in Afghanistan; it is taking a new form. The US is ending its ground military deployment but there will be no peace in Afghanistan. As of June 25, USS Ronald Reagan, US Navy’s nuclear-powered supercarrier with unlimited range, along with a Carrier Air Wing, a Guided-Missile Cruiser and a Destroyer Squadron, is operating in the North Arabian Sea. Carrier Air Wing Five consists of four Squadrons of F/A-18E Super Hornet, E-2D Hawkeye, Carrier Airborne Early Warning Squadron, Electronic Attack Squadron, Helicopter Sea Combat Squadron and a Helicopter Maritime Strike Squadron is in the North Arabian Sea. USS Shiloh is a Ticonderoga-class guided missile cruiser and USS Halsey is an Arleigh Burke-class guided missile destroyer.

USS Ronald Reagan in the North Arabian Sea means all-weather offensive air-to-surface capability, interception and destruction capacity, destruction of incoming missiles, complete air superiority, destruction of enemy ships and submarines, complete local sea control, shore warning nets, airborne electronic countermeasures, in-flight refueling operations and search and rescue operations. USS Ronald Reagan’s two Westinghouse A4W nuclear reactors mean lifetime supply of energy.

America has retreated in haste, leaving behind a power vacuum on the ground. Will China try to fill that vacuum? China has indeed become a great military power, but still lacks the instruments of projecting that power. China has indeed become a great economic power, but still lacks the instruments of projecting that financial power (the likes of the IMF, the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank). In all probability, China will avoid Afghanistan's mess and find alternative loops around it.

Pakistan is caught between a rock and a hard place. A civil war in Afghanistan means two things for Pakistan: refugees and militancy. How many refugees? UNHCR is planning for 300,000 while the International Organization for Migration (IOM) has estimated four million. Civil war means refugees and refugees means economic burden-plus militancy. To be certain, terrorism-related incidents have already gone up by 30 percent in the first seven months of this year compared to 2020 (in 2013, an average of 10 terrorism-related incidents took place every day of the year).

USS Ronald Reagan will sail away one day; the Taliban are our neighbours. It's a tough call. Pakistan is caught between a rock and a hard place. The Taliban are listening to no one and Pakistan is on the FATF’s grey list, European Union Aviation Safety Agency’s black list, European Union Parliament’s black list, UK’s Covid-related red list, Child-Soldier Prevention Act’s black list and has a stark warning on GSP+. Then there are our extreme economic vulnerabilities, like the twin deficits of budget and trade – plus a gross external financial requirement of $29 billion in the current financial year.

To be sure, the power vacuum in Afghanistan opens up a window of opportunity for Pakistan: America and its Western allies are now more dependent on Pak Army than ever before. America sure has its destructive power in place; Pakistan can play a constructive role. It's definitely a tightrope.

Tough times call for tough decisions and tough decisions require domestic political consensus, which we lack. In the not too distant future, Afghanistan will actually become a sideshow and the US-China contest will be the real show. More tough decisions ahead. Pakistan’s establishment has always taken a ‘rationalist-materialistic’ approach to safeguarding Pakistan’s core interests. That’s not about to change.

The writer is a columnist based in Islamabad.

Email: farrukh15@hotmail.com Twitter: @saleemfarrukh