Fewer ‘Rotis’ dilemma?

By Farhan Bokhari

In the coming months, Pakistanis can be certain of two related outcomes from an expected delay in planting this years’ wheat crop – an overall likely shortage of meeting the target and possibly dearer price of ‘Roti’, or fewer ‘Rotis’ for the poorest of the poor.

The ideal time for sowing of the wheat crop will likely pass on Sunday, unnoticed across the power corridors of Islamabad and the country’s provinces with little consideration for the future.

As the country’s political stakeholders battle to enlarge their footprint on one region or another, profoundly significant questions have emerged all over on future prosperity of average households.

Long-term practitioners of wheat cultivation and experts know well that a delay beyond mid-November accounts for a daily loss of 20 kilograms of the crop per acre. Each passing day translates into an average daily loss of roughly Rupees 800 per acre in Punjab, and a daily loss of roughly Rs1,000 per acre in Sindh, given the difference in the official support price for the two provinces.

This years’ wheat plantation has been particularly surrounded with major gaps. Anecdotal evidence from the heartland of rural Punjab suggests widespread shortage of the availability of quality seeds for farmers.

Meanwhile, the recently announced official subsidy for the most-sought-after fertilizers, notably DAP and

Urea, has yet to translate into lower prices for farmers. Consequently, whenever the subsidy finally kicks in, there would already have been a delay in sowing beyond the prescribed time for plantation.

At the same time, the mismatch in the official support price of wheat for the Punjab versus Sindh has already created a significant dilemma. For farmers across the southern parts of the Punjab bordering Sindh, the incentive to smuggle the crop to the next door province in search of a significant price increase has been put in place.

Exactly how the future unfolds depends in part on weather conditions too. Yet, the man-made disasters that have engulfed Pakistan’s agriculture sector only continue to widen. For prime minister Imran Khan whose Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI) rules Punjab and Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (KP) along with an alliance in Balochistan beyond the power corridors of Islamabad, there are multi-faceted questions. More than two years after his arrival in the Prime Minister’s House and his promise of establishing a closer focus on agriculture, Pakistan’s croplands all over present a grimmer picture.Following the 18th Amendment to the Constitution, agriculture and its related functions have moved more centrally to the provinces.

Once again, for Punjab which is situated at the centre of Pakistan’s agricultural production, there are new and uncomfortable questions. Under Chief Minister Usman Buzdar’s increasingly controversial watch, exactly what has led to reports of widespread absence of high quality seeds must emerge as a major question.

For the long haul, the cause of today’s food insecurity across Pakistan has been rooted in matters such as a virtual abdication of responsibility by the state towards key objectives. These range from a slide in the quality of agricultural research to the continued breakdown in extension services responsible for taking knowledge on crops to the door steps of farmers.

Meanwhile, little joy comes from a continuous breakdown of Pakistan’s once thriving irrigation system, where tail-enders or those at the tail end of canal systems have accepted one visible reality — their fields will remain dry unless there’s rainfall and/or they install tube wells and accept the added cost.

Together, these challenges stand out at the very heart of Pakistan’s deepening crisis of governance that has progressed year after year.

For Imran Khan who is not alone in overseeing the crisis that has expanded year after year, the most significant question is just one — his promises of turning the corner as he assumed office.

Yet, his continued defence of the increasingly indefensible Buzdar administration in the Punjab, has come at the cost of widespread evidence of inaction on multiple fronts, including agriculture.

Meanwhile, for the future of Pakistan, an increasingly profound question is just one — can the country continue to ignore the growing food insecurity as its ruling structure presides

over one series of neglect of agriculture after another?