Reduced crowds ‘unlikely to lower Covid spread risk’

LONDON: Academics have warned reopening stadia with reduced crowd numbers is unlikely to lower the risk of spreading Covid-19.

Researchers at the University of Reading claim without effective social distancing measures for fans before, during and after matches, rates of transmission will most probably not fall. Analysis of the number of coronavirus cases and deaths following matches played in England’s top eight divisions in the weeks prior to the 2019/20 season’s suspension showed links to higher Covid-19 cases and deaths in the local area.

The study found there were on average around six additional cases, two additional deaths, and three additional excess deaths per match per 100,000 people in the areas the games were played, with similar increases in the areas the away teams came from.

This increase was no lower after matches with low attendances than those with capacity crowds. “Our study backs up the view that reducing crowd sizes on its own is unlikely to lower the risk of spreading of the virus,” said professor James Reade, a sports economist at the University of Reading and lead author of the study.

“Even when stadiums are only partially filled, fans tend to pack together in groups. They also mix in bar areas, toilets, and queues, as well as in pubs, shops and restaurants outside the grounds. “This behaviour presents an effective route for airborne viruses to spread and is no less prevalent with smaller crowds.

“It must be noted that our findings linking cases and matches offer only observational evidence regarding the infection risk in under-capacity stadiums.

“While it is difficult to compare data before and after lockdown – as people’s behaviour and rules have changed on transport and in shops, for example – our findings do suggest pilot events will be essential to planning for the safe return of crowds to sporting events.”

The study evaluated matches played in February and March 2020 and their effect on deaths and excess deaths in April 2020 and found matches in March had a larger impact on Covid-19 cases and deaths in the areas of both the home and away teams as the virus became more widespread.