Winter of discontent

British PM Callaghan (1976-79) borrowed the term ‘winter of discontent’ from Shakespeare’s play Richard III, to describe the events of winter 1978-79 in Britain.

The British working class and trade union movement showed its muscle and organised many strikes and protests against the economic policies of the Callaghan-led Labour government. It was a period of widespread discontent anger against the government.

So I am borrowing this term to explain the situation faced by the PTI government led by Prime Minister Imran Khan. Just 14 months after assuming power, the government is facing its own winter of discontent. The discontent against the government among different sections of society has increased in recent months. The winter of 2019-20 could turn out to be a winter of discontent for this government.

On the one hand, the government is facing political hostility from the opposition political parties. The JUI-F has already announced an Azadi March starting from October 27. On the other hand, it faces strikes and protests by traders, doctors, teachers, and health workers. Different trade unions are preparing to launch protests against the planned privatization of different public-sector utilities and enterprises.

The young doctors, nurses, and allied health staff in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa have been on strike for the last three weeks against the regional and district health authorities in KP. The use of force and arrests of 26 doctors and threats of termination of the services of striking doctors have so far failed to end the strike.

Young doctors, nurses, and health workers are also on strike against the MTI act 2019. The strike – against what they term the ‘privatisation’ of hospitals under the Punjab Medical Teaching Institutions Act (MTI) 2019 – at government-run hospitals across Punjab, has entered the third week.

Traders have announced a countrywide strike on October 28 and 29 against the government’s decision of requiring them to present a copy of their CNICs for the sale and purchase of goods and other tax measures. Traders in Faisalabad already organised a one-day shutter down strike. The traders are threatening to give a shutter-down call for an indefinite period. Most of the power looms have already closed down in different cities of Punjab against the imposition of taxes. The traders look determined to resist the tax policies of the government.

Doctors, traders and other public-sector workers are fighting against the economic policies of the government but they are not demanding the government resign. At the moment, different sections are fighting separately for their own demands but the situation might force them to form a united front. These struggles might take advantage of the political situation to put more pressure on the government.

The rising inflation and economic stagnation is fuelling discontent and anger among the general public. The economic performance of the government has failed to impress the wider population. Even though the government is insisting that the economic situation is improving, the ground reality is starkly different.

JUI-F Chief Maulana Fazlur Rahman is going to start his Azadi March on October 27 from Sindh; it is meant to culminate in Islamabad on October 31. The PML-N, PPP and other opposition parties will also participate in this march. It is not yet clear that whether the JUI-F led march will end with a rally and public meeting in Islamabad or if the opposition parties will stay there for a sit-in. JUI-F leaders are saying that they will announce the next strategy on October 31.

Maulana is coming with a clear aim to oust the PTI government. He is demanding the resignation of PM Imran Khan. Whether Maulana and other opposition parties succeed or fail is one thing but what is certain is that prolonged political agitation and standoff with the government will not only increase political polarisation, chaos, and instability but also badly affect the economy.

Even if the government succeeds in surviving the opposition onslaught, its dependence for survival will increase. The government’s strategy to put the opposition to the wall has not worked well.

The fate of the Azadi march largely depends on the numbers it manages to get together. A massive mobilisation of opposition supporters will put pressure on the government to address the grievances and some demands of the opposition parties. If opposition forces fail to mobilise people in big numbers then the agitation might fizzle out quickly. The JUI-F and other opposition forces are playing a big gamble.

This march will be first major political challenge for the PTI government. The government seems nervous and under pressure. A lot will depend on how the government deals with this march. If it tries to use excessive force and traditional bureaucratic methods to stop the march then this strategy might backfire. Any violence might put the entire democratic process and system in danger.

The writer is a freelance journalist.