Oil sales fall 32pc to 9.2 million tons in July-December

KARACHI: Oil sales sharply fell 32 percent to 9.2 million tons during the first half of the current fiscal year of 2018/19 as the government’s shift to alternative fuel for power generation brought furnace oil off-take down, analysts said on Wednesday.

Furnace oil sales steeply declined 67 percent to 1.5 million tons in the July-December period over the corresponding period a year earlier. “Excluding furnace oil, volumes significantly went down 15 percent, highest in the last decade,” analyst Shankar Talreja at Topline Securities said.

“After furnace oil, largest decline was seen in high speed diesel, which fell 22 percent due to availability of smuggled Iranian diesel and slowdown in economy with large scale manufacturing activities down 0.65 percent in 4MFY19.”

Motor spirit (petrol) sales were down two percent during 1HFY19 after posting growth for nine consecutive years. “Lower motor spirit sales could be attributed to rise in petrol prices by around 24 percent,” Talreja added.

Analyst Ahsan Arshad at Taurus Securities said oil marketing companies are facing multiple headwinds, including declining oil prices and rupee fluctuations, “which could result in inventory and exchange losses, weakening volumes, and liquidity issues”. Oil sales fell 23 percent year-on-year, but rose eight percent month-on-month to 1.43 million tons in December.

Sales of high speed diesel plunged 22 percent year-on-year and two percent month-on-month on account of significant surge in diesel prices. Likewise, furnace oil sales plummeted 56 percent year-on-year as government decided to close furnace oil-based power plants and commenced electricity generation through regasified liquefied natural gas, wind power plants, solar and coal-based electricity generation.

In December, petrol sales depicted a flattish trend on yearly basis as volumes clocked in at 0.60 million tons, up by 12 percent on monthly basis.

Analyst Arsalan Hanif at Arif Habib Limited said petrol sales remained stagnant primarily due to prices climbing up 24 percent year-on-year and surge in quantum of smuggled fuel from Iran despite continuous rise in sales of motor cars and motor bikes.

High speed diesel sales plummeted 22 percent year-on-year and two percent month-on-month to 0.59 million tons. Sales of furnace oil steeply decreased 56 percent year-on-year and increased 55 percent month-on-month to 0.19 million tons.

“We believe that this decline may become more evident in upcoming months, while demand may once again pick pace in summers to meet electricity demand,” Hanif said. In 2018, furnace oil and high speed diesel sales witnessed a steep decline of 51 percent and 10 percent to 4.27 million tons and eight million tons, respectively. Petrol sales grew three percent to 7.28 million tons. Last year, Pakistan State Oil suffered major loss from ongoing economic slowdown, higher petroleum product prices and shift in power generation from captive to grid as overall sales slumped 38 percent to 8.76 million tons in 2018. Its market share dropped to 43 percent vis-à-vis 54.6 percent.

Market shares of Hascol and Attock Petroleum increased to 12.4 percent and 10.3 percent in 2018 compared to 10.2 percent and 8.3 percent in 2017, largely fueled by growth in petrol sales. Shell Pakistan maintained its market share at 7.7 percent versus 7.5 percent.

The Oil Companies Advisory Committee said oil and liquefied natural gas imports fell 11 percent year-on-year to 1.84 million tons in December. The country imported zero quantity of furnace oil in December.

Imports of high speed diesel and crude oil declined 50 percent and 13 percent year-on-year, respectively. However, liquefied natural gas and petrol imports increased 33 percent and 21 percent year-on-year in December.