Politics to heat up this summer

ISLAMABAD: Setbacks are part of politics, but it depends how you take them. If results of cantonment board elections surprised Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, PTI, the order of the Election Tribunal in NA-125 was a big setback for Pakistan Muslim League, PML-N, because it was a high profile seat. There can be a few aftershocks for both in the next few weeks but one thing is certain; this summer will be politically hot and will get hotter after Judicial Commission’s findings.
But we hardly have a tradition of accepting defeat with grace. If you just go through the order of Election Tribunal in NA-125, it is not as bad for PML-N as everyone initially thought. Though it did order fresh election in the constituency, it did not level “rigging” charges against PML-N candidate Khawaja Saaed Rafiq, who has lost his seat after the order unless he goes into appeal.
Similarly, there is a lot to worry for Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, PTI, too in this order, if Khan Sb reads it carefully. If PML decides to go for by-election instead of filing an appeal, things may not be easy for PTI.
The order did mention scores of irregularities but no serious allegation against the candidate i.e. Khwaja himself. It called for re-election but did not declare PTI’s Hamid Khan the winner. It did not order opening of “bags” and thus provided relief to PML-N.
So, PTI should also accept the fact that the series of verdicts, announced by different Election Tribunals in the last two years were, by and large, based on certain facts and merit.The problem with PML-N leadership led by Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif is their “overreaction,” which at times looks like “Imran’s fobia,” as they hardly miss an occasion to criticise him or his dharna. Such reaction in politics often goes in favour of the opponent.
PML-N has a choice. It can move the Supreme Court or go to the people’s court, which perhaps will be a challenge but in the backdrop of cantonment board elections, will be the right approach. They can learn a few lessons from MQM.
No doubt there is need to have a critical view of the tribunal’s order with regard to NA-125, as verdicts can be critically reviewed, but if Khawaja Saad Rafiq and PML-N are confident to win the seat again, they must opt for people’s verdict, which is the ultimate in democracy and politics.
The last few days certainly go in Imran’s favor, particularly after his party’s failure to perform better in the cantonment boards elections. NA-125 order has certainly raised the morale of PTI workers.
The next round will be local bodies polls in PTI’s stronghold, KPK, on May 30. This will be followed by elections in Gilgit and Baltistan, where once again the main contest will be between PML-N and PTI though PPP also has a strong base in the area and they are trying hard to perform well. PPP has not been able to improve its performance since 2013. It suffered in the cantonment boards election and chances of improving its position in the KPK local bodies elections are also looked slim.
But Imran’s biggest challenge is the problems within the party; internal rifts in Punjab, KPK and in Sindh have deepened, which can have impact on the coming elections, whether in NA-125, local bodies or Gilgit-Baltistan.
Imran has already been given three weeks by his own nominated party Election Tribunal, headed by retired Justice, Wajiuddin. PTI is the only party, which has such a transparent system. Imran must go for new party elections in order to get a better team for the next general elections. Some party leaders may suggest that it is not the appropriate time but delay in polls can further aggravate PTI’s internal problems.
So, while PTI has every right to celebrate the re-election order in NA-125, there is concern in the party than time and again they have proven to be weak in managing elections, as seen in NA-246, Karachi, and in cantonment boards elections. However, if a similar order comes in some other constituencies, like the crucial Ayaz Sadiq vs Imran Khan, the PML-N might lose more ground to PTI, particularly in its strongest base, Lahore.
But, the mother of all decisions would be that of the Judicial Commission. Its findings would be the defining moment in our politics. Both PTI and PML-N have hired the best legal minds to defend their case before 3-member commission headed by Chief Justice of Pakistan.
Thus, we may have a hot political summer this year, not because of the budget but because of the possible findings of the Judicial Commission. All eyes are now on JC. Both PML-N and PTI know that the real political battle will start after JC’s findings.
What the PML-N leadership needs to realise is that the opposition always has more open space as compared to the ruling party. The government needs to react differently and has to be more sober. By mentioning Imran or dharna in every speech or statements, they are actually giving the message that Imran and PTI are creating dent in their political base.
I was a bit disappointed with the reaction of PML-N leader, Khawaja Saad Rafiq, after the brief order of NA-125. Had he reacted after reading the full order, it could have been different.Khawaja Sb, who has performed well as railways minister, hit out Imran and called him a ‘liar’. “He has been telling lies from his container.”
But why blame Khawaja, when even Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, or his brother, Shahbaz Sharif, hardly miss an occasion to criticise “dharna”.Whether it is the visit of the Chinese Prime Minister or inauguration of 100MW solar power plant, the Sharif brothers do not forget to mention “Imran’s dharna,”
When Benazir Bhutto became a national leader after her return from exile for the first time on April 10, 1986, Mian Nawaz Sharif was then the chief minister of Punjab. She was advised by some party leaders to avoid mentioning Sharif’s name as the main opposition leader. Unfortunately, she ignored this advice and within years, when an opposition alliance was formed and named as Islamic Jamhouri Ittehad, IJI, Sharif became its central leader.
Years later, Sharif committed the same mistake and within a year Imran became the most popular opposition leader in the country.The writer is the senior columnist and analyst of GEO, The News and Jang.