A five-year run

With the second elected government in Pakistan’s history completing its term today, it is time to assess its performance. In 2013, when the PML-N took power, there was a certain optimism in the air. For the first time in our history, there was a smooth transition to power from one democratically-elected government to the other. Nawaz Sharif coasted into the PM House on a wave of public popularity -- not even needing to form a brittle coalition government. His government had come on the promise of bringing economic prosperity to Pakistan and solving the crippling power crisis. It faced a challenging situation in which the country was near financial bankruptcy as well as facing a formidable challenge from terrorism. This was in addition to the country’s history of a consistent civil-military imbalance.

The government did not get off to an easy start. Having had to negotiate a bailout package with the IMF, it faced a struggle to assert economic sovereignty. Much of the early economic policies were a product of tense negotiations with Pakistan’s international creditors. Almost immediately, the government also faced significant political upheaval, with dharnas questioning the legitimacy of the 2013 elections. In many a moment, it seemed the government would struggle to survive, especially after the controversial loss of its party leader and former prime minister Nawaz Sharif to the Panama Papers scandal. It is final year in power, the party itself seems to have faced a struggle for its future.

The PML-N says that, faced with formidable challenges, it has done exceptionally well. Former Finance Minister Ishaq Dar used to claim that the government had brought Pakistan from the brink to macroeconomic stability. However, while the PML-N government did manage to bring economic growth back on track from the lows of the previous PPP period, this was done at a significant cost to the country’s macroeconomic stability. The current account balance continued to fall amidst rising imports and falling exports, which does little to soothe anyone concerned about the fundamental health of the economy. Tax amnesty after tax amnesty was offered to increase the number of taxpayers -- but with no success. Instead, tax revenue continued to be increased through indirect taxes. As a result, the overall economic situation remains fairly precarious.

The government was also unable to fulfil its key promise to solve the power crisis. How much damage its strategy of increasing generation capacity without addressing the circular debt and transmission problems in the power sector has done can only be determined by independent investigations. One could say that the increase in power generation capacity offers an opportunity for the next government to focus on the structural problems in the power sector -- but this is something the outgoing government should have done itself. Pointing to political intrigue is rarely a legitimate excuse for poor policymaking.

What the government could be remembered for most is negotiating the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor, which could change Pakistan’s economic future. But concerns remain over how much it would benefit Pakistan and how much it benefits China. Either way, how it plays out will be critical for historians when they look back at the PML-N’s 2013-2018 term. On the foreign policy front, the government seems to have had good intentions, despite the glaring absence of a formal foreign minister for much of its term. Initially, the government had extended a hand of friendship to India -- although that was quickly spurned by Narendra Modi. The country’s relationship with China, however, is stronger than it has ever been before and the benefits of CPEC are starting to be felt. The outgoing government also reached out to Russia and Turkey, creating new alliances and moving away from the US-centric foreign policy of the past. Still, one can’t help but feel that a lot of opportunities were squandered, both domestically and internationally, by the uncertainty and chaos that envelops our politics. Having completed its term, the PML-N will have to stand up and accept both the good and bad decisions it has made while in government.