Election equations

Asif Zardari’s statement that he would be willing to consider a working arrangement with the PTI along the lines of the one they had during the Senate chairman vote says a lot about the state of the PPP today. The party has no chance of winning the most seats in this summer’s general election – and it knows it. Zardari, however, is known as one of the most shrewd politicians around and he can sense an opening. There is a very real possibility that no single party will be in a position to form the next government. In such a scenario, the PPP would be in a prime position to break the deadlock and avert a hung parliament. By throwing feelers out to the PTI, he is showing that he would be open to a power-sharing alliance of convenience. Imran Khan has always denied that he would ever ally with the PPP and has often blasted Zardari as corrupt. But is there reason to think that may be little more than rhetoric? Some would say that when the interests of the two parties aligned during the Senate elections, they did end up working towards the same goal, even while denying they were doing so.

What is clear is that the PTI needs all the alliances it can get. The Jamaat-e-Islami has now quit the PTI-led coalition government in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa after party chief Sirajul Haq’s statements regarding the vote for a certain candidate in the Senate elections. Imran Khan has a habit of alienating potential allies and his party’s weakness in Sindh and Balochistan means he has little chance of forming a government alone. The situation is equally murky for the PML-N. Many of its parliamentarians have left the party and are considering running as independents. It enjoys the support of the JUI-F, although there is a chance for a rupture should the PML-N vigorously pursue reforms in Fata during its final month in power. The MQM-Pakistan, amidst in-fighting and pressure from outside, can no longer be certain of maintaining its electoral fortress in Karachi. With so much in flux, it could be independent candidates who end up holding the balance of power. Candidates who are not part of any political party tend to be more susceptible to temptations. It would be better for all political parties, and those who run for the assemblies, to declare their allegiance so that we can be confident that the election results reflect the will of the people.