PPP, PML-N to have close fight for Senate chairman election

Islamabad
The election to the new Senate chairman would be a close call as the two main contenders are going to end up with almost equal number of senators after the March 5 poll as far as their individual tally would be concerned.
Considering their present strength and the additions made by the fresh election, the individual strength of the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N) and the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP) will float around twenty-six senators.
It implies that none will be able to get its favourite elected as the Senate chief single-handed. They will be dependent on the support of the smaller parties and Federally Administered Tribal Area (Fata) senators.
The Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI), which will make a debut in the Senate, is unlikely to back either the PPP or the PML-N. With its nearly six senators, all to be elected by Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) Assembly, it will watch the contest either from the sidelines or field its own candidate for the Senate chairman's position.
A close review of the present parliamentary alignments in the Senate makes it clear that the PML-Q will certainly go with the PPP and add four senators to its strength. This will bring the PPP's votes to nearly thirty.
Although the Muttahida Qaumi Movement (MQM) has not yet spelt out whether it will stand with the PPP or the PML-N in the chairman's election, it is willing to join the Sindh government, which means that it has its relations improved with the PPP now. Given this bonhomie though always marred by suspicions and mistrust, the MQM's six votes may fall in the PPP representative's basket.
The Awami National Party (ANP) has the largest number of votes, six, among other parliamentary parties. At the moment, it is unclear whether to go with the PPP or the PML-N in election of the Senate chief.
However, it appears difficult for the PPP to bag the support of all other parliamentary parties and Fata senators. Maulana Fazlur Rehman of JUI with five senators and Balochistan National Party-Awami, Pakh-tunkhwa Milli Awami Party and National Party having two lawmakers each will definitely back the PML-N.
The role of eight Fata senators will be crucial in the tight chairman's election. A majority of them is likely to stand with the government nominee. Besides, the lone independent senator Mohsin Legahri will vote for the PML-N aspirant. The PML-N may finally win the chairman's slot, but it would not be at all easy and would be a photo finish.
From amongst the provinces, the government's candidate is going to clinch a predominant majority of votes of the Balochistan senators.
As a whole, the smaller parties and Fata legislators will hold the key in the election of the new chairman and his deputy.
The PML-N and PPP will emerge as the main seat holders. The PPP's major edge is that apart from a small number of new additions, it has 19 senators left after the retirement of its 21 lawmakers. On the other hand, the PML-N's main disadvantage is that it has just eight senators left after the retirement of an equal number.
Even if the PPP failed to get the office of the Senate chairman, it will be a formidable opposition, better numerically than the National Assembly. However, it stands wiped out from the Punjab, KP and Balochistan because of its dismal performance in the 2013 general elections. It is expected to get seven seats only from Sindh.
On the contrary, the PML-N will sweep election in Punjab and the federal area, is likely to secure at least one seat from KP and will bag around three seats from Balochistan but will get nothing from Sindh.
A total of eleven seats are to be filled by each provincial assembly. They include seven general seats, two women seats and two technocrats' seats. Besides, two senators - one woman seat and one general seat - from Islamabad are to be filled by the National Assembly. Then, there are four senators from the Fata, who would be chosen by 12 members of the National Assembly and two minorities' seats to be filled by the KP and Balochistan assemblies.
In the Punjab Assembly, at least 53 members will elect one senator on general seat. In the Sindh Assembly, minimum of 24 lawmakers are needed to choose one senator on general seat. In the KP Assembly, at least 17.7 members are required to elect one senator on general seat. In the Balochistan Assembly, minimum of 9.28 lawmakers are required to elect one senator on general seat.