The gathering storm

The past belongs to the historian, the future to the diviner. In Pakistan, history belongs to the lawyer and the future is the preserve of the television anchor. No wonder these are the two most sought after professions in a society forever caught in one conflict or another and forever uncertain about the future.

No human can have access to all the information needed to predict the future with any amount of certainty. Our predictions are based on available information, past patterns, our models of the world and, of course, our hopes and desires. However, so strong is the human need to peep into the future that prognosticators are often considered the second oldest profession in the world.

Records going back 5,000 years show that a fearful public has kept the diviners well fed throughout history. Isaac Asimov writes in his book, ‘The Future Days’: “Such was the eagerness of the people to believe these ‘augurs’ that they had great power and could easily count on being well supported by a grateful or a fearful public.”

In today’s world, diviners come in all shapes and sizes. The forecasting professionals include meteorologists, economists, market analysts, demographers, technology forecasters, and futurists. Most of our TV anchors can be easily counted among futurists. Their big, bulging round eyes staring at you from behind those large spectacles bear testimony to their connection with the unforeseen world. “What can you see?” is their favourite question. And what they and many of their guests often see is a minister or the prime minister hanging from a ceiling fan.

These good people have already surpassed lawyers as agents of conflict in society. Lawyers are trained to look into the past, not as dispassionate observers, but as partisan advocates. They operate in a mode of conflict and try to resolve a conflict by establishing clear winners and losers. Real, sustainable conflict resolution, however, requires finding a win-win situation.

It is the boundary between economy and politics that interests much of the world. In the land of the pure, it the boundary between law and politics where action takes place. Most Pakistanis think that any problem can be solved by enacting some law or by hanging a few persons.

Pick any book on Pakistan’s history and there is a good chance that you will find some synonym of crisis on the title. As Pervez Musharraf reminded us recently, it is only during a dictatorship that we find stability in the country. He failed to mention that at the end of each dictatorship a volcano erupted and fires engulfed the country. During a democracy, however, the volcano keeps smouldering constantly.

If we go by predictions from our professional soothsayers, half of the revolution has taken place and the land of milk and honey is awaiting us after the rest of the work is done. The sacrifice has taken place before the festival of sacrifice when a mass slaughter will usher in a new era of liberty, equality and fraternity.

All indicators, however, are pointing to a different direction. The Supreme Court tried to resolve a crisis and we find ourselves in a worse situation. The emerging political crisis has serious repercussions for Pakistan’s economy. The mayhem at the Pakistan Stock Exchange makes it amply clear. A stock market works like a barometer of the economy; like a weather cock, it shows which way the economic wind is blowing in the country.

In 2016, the Pakistan Stock Exchange (PSX) provided stunning 46 percent returns – the highest returns on equity investments by any market across Asia. Brokers and analysts projected the index would hit 56,000 points by Dec 2017. On August 18, the PSX closed at merely 42,347 and the market may keep plunging down, making it one of the worst performing markets in the world this year.

If the promise of economic growth does not materialise, Pakistan may find it hard to repay the Chinese loans it is taking to revamp its infrastructure under CPEC. The Chinese are taking a huge risk by investing in Pakistan at a time when no other country is willing to do so. However, they are shrewd businessmen and there are other countries where such investment can be diverted if Pakistan remains unstable.

The social consequences of another decade of lost economic opportunities cannot be overstated either. We are a country where the median age is 21 years and no less than 90 million citizens are less than 21 years of age. All of these people need jobs and economic opportunities.

The political crisis appears to be worsening as the PML-N has hardened its position in anticipation of worse to come. Nawaz Sharif has sent his sons back to Britain and he is daring NAB to arrest him. Theoretically, it should be simple, practically it is not. Remember, another politician – called Imran Khan – has refused to appear before the Anti Terrorist Court where he faces charges of “destroying property in the Red Zone, attacking the state TV channel’s building and injuring a senior police officer”.

It is easy to get emotional over insults to the judiciary. However, such practices have not been uncommon even under the current ‘Azad Adlia’. Not long ago, Imran Khan had accused the judiciary of organised election rigging under the supervision of the then chief justice of Pakistan, Iftikhar Mohammad Chaudhry. He had even mentioned a meeting the chief justice had apparently called for the purpose.

The months leading up to the next elections may be the most acrimonious in our history since 1970. This kind of political acrimony does not take long to transform into political violence. Some ominous signs have already started appearing. A second-year student was killed and two others were injured in a clash between activists of the PTI and the PML-N in Khanewal last Friday.

It appears that 58-2-B was a better instrument than Articles 62-63. The former used to leave the top political leadership unharmed. It also diverted national energies to the electoral process immediately. Articles 62-63 throw out a leader without changing anything else immediately. They hit at the top and sever the head first.

In the current situation, elections may not solve the political crises either. Whichever party loses the election may go into a movement mode soon after, ensuring political instability.

The current democratic experiment cannot endure without politicians and political parties going back to the drawing board and striking an agreement about political norms, setting institutional boundaries and vowing to strengthen institutions. Can they do it before such an exercise is forced upon them by the umpire as happened in the case of the Charter of Democracy? We do not know. Only one thing is certain: the businesses of diviners will keep thriving.

The writer is an anthropologist and development professional.

Email: zaighamkhan@yahoo.com

Twitter: @zaighamkhan