Law and politics

This week the soul of the infamous Panama leaks may be put to eternal rest but only in the legal and constitutional sense. Politically, the ghosts of the Panama leaks will not go away easily. Since election season has already set in, the verdict will define much of the national discourse. And we know from experience that this will not be an edifying intellectual exercise but essentially a churlish blame-game that naturally flows down towards the gutters instead of being aimed at the skies.

The verdict’s winners and losers are already known. Imran Khan will benefit at the cost of Nawaz Sharif. The only political question that needs to be answered is this: how much will Imran gain and Nawaz Sharif lose?

Predictably, Imran Khan is looking for a total gain scenario. This has been his ‘strategy’ – to use this sophisticated term in a loose way – since his arrival on the political scene almost two decades back. Yes, it has been this long; it’s just that our fish-like memory doesn’t contain information longer than three seconds.

Imran has been waiting for Allah, the army or Aladdin to deliver the trophy of prime ministership to him. Contrary to the imagery that he creates through on-camera push-ups and aggressive gesticulation, he is lazy and ordinary in the political sense. He does not do his homework. He has no time for institutionalising his great support for the singular cause he pursues – that of making it to the PM House. He has outsourced party management to vested interests personified by Jehangir Khan Tareen, a pigmy made big by mega bucks.

So Imran Khan’s total reliance has been on some miracle of strategic scale that would dispatch all his opponents to the Indian Ocean leaving only him in the contest. It was this hope that got him to sup with General Pervez Musharraf and later on with General Zaheerul Islam. Now he expects the bench led by Justice Asif Saeed Khan Khosa to clear the way for him in a manner the two generals couldn’t. Or didn’t.

He understands that there is a real possibility that the bench may not go to maximum lengths in decimating Nawaz Sharif through the verdict. He has, therefore, already positioned himself for political manoeuvring in case Nawaz Sharif is damaged, but not mortally, by the verdict. His charter of demands for free and fair elections is an attempt to maximise his advantage from the verdict. He wants to dominate the political scene after the verdict is announced through celebrations (in case Nawaz Sharif is asked to step down), through agitation (in case Nawaz Sharif is morally wounded by the verdict) and through a combination of both (in case Nawaz Sharif calls early elections).

The crucial query facing Imran Khan is not whether he will gain from the verdict – that is a result foretold – but how much he will be able to extract out of the favourable political environment likely to be generated by the Panama leaks judicial settlement. His past isn’t a reassuring example of turning opportunities into winning advantages, even though he continues to quote selective and irrelevant cricket examples to prove that he is a super planner.

In case the Panama leaks decision falls short of the ‘total gain’ scenario, we might see Imran Khan struggle with his political path forward. He may resort to agitation (since celebrations can only be short-lived) but that would not get him a strategic advantage against the Sharifs. This is not a time when anyone can bring the entire system to a grinding halt. There is so much happening on the defence, security and counterterrorism fronts that any attempt at paralysing the functioning of the state would not work. No 126 days will be available to Imran Khan to linger with his demands. He will have to be quick with his moves and his wits to nail down the momentum the verdict will generate for him. Can he do it? We shall discover soon.

The net loser is Nawaz Sharif. His past has caught up with him. Throughout the Panama leaks hearings he has constantly faced the what-to-do-with-the-dead-body challenge. It has popped up from the trunk of the car, from the shallows of the nearby lake, from the suitcase in the closet or the cupboard downstairs.

If the last part of the Panama leaks hearings is a guide, the bench wasn’t convinced of the argument that the Sharifs have been upfront in building their fortunes. However, the difficulty for the bench is that it cannot take legal contextualism to a point where constitutional textualism becomes irrelevant. It is tempting to think in terms of flexing the judicial muscle and muscling out a prime minister but the long-term legal ramifications of populist decisions are generally negative.

Another phase of a similar variety of justice, no matter how popular within the anti-Sharif camp, will have to be seriously weighed against its eventual outcomes. This is what Nawaz Sharif is counting on. But even if the bench stops short of declaring Nawaz Sharif guilty of hiding his wealth or lying under oath, every word of the verdict will inflict a thousand cuts on him. The Panama leaks proceedings have created a legend about the Sharifs’ financial shenanigans and this legend does not depend on legalities. The inability of the Sharifs to bring forward convincing documentary proof of their financial innocence has reinforced this legend.

With the judiciary announcing its judgement on the matter, even a fairly neutral commentary or assessment by the bench in their detailed judgement will be read in the context of the popular belief that the Sharifs have a lot to hide and they have been less than truthful in their disclosure. This is a heavy cost to bear.

In all probability, Nawaz Sharif will be a reduced leader after the verdict. And if the final judgement is unequivocal and is a damning indictment of the prime minister, Nawaz Sharif could well see himself slide downhill – permanently.

But that might not be the end of League politics. The Sharif camp has prepared for the worst, as any likely loser from a legal battle would in anticipation of a negative verdict. Their strategy is to harness their advantage in Punjab and launch (perhaps through Maryam Nawaz) a strong push for retaining their formidable advantages built by being in power for so long.

Imran Khan’s agitation will work wonderfully for the League since this will give the party a clearly identifiable enemy to rally against. Early elections, a make-shift prime minister, Maryam Nawaz as the new-generation leader – there are several options that the League will be able to exercise, but in all of them it will be playing a weak hand.

Therefore, though the Panama leaks verdict may settle the legal dust, it is unlikely to create a clear political field with lasting victors and forever vanquished. If anything, it can start a new round of old politics that has wasted so much time of this nation already without any substantial result. But this is something that can’t be helped. One verdict cannot deliver a new Pakistan.

Hopefully, the verdict will be announced soon. Hopefully, it will be clear, to the point, devoid of moralising poetry, haranguing, pontification and all such Oracle-like additives that adorn judgement-writing exercises these days. The nation can read Kahlil Gibran at another time. What is needed is a judgement that is easy on the eye and makes legal sense.

The writer is former executive editor of The News and a senior journalist with Geo TV.

Email: syedtalathussain@gmail.com

Twitter: @TalatHussain12