How dangerous is Modi?

Narendra Modi always had an ominous look about him – owing to his track record of cruelty to the Muslims of Gujarat. In the election campaign of 2014, he began to look dangerous with his talk of responding to Pakistan with goli (bullet) rather than boli (words) as done by the Congress Party.

The Modi of today is not only dangerous but also unpredictable. He struck when the whole world was riveted to the US election. Within a few minutes, most of India’s paper money had become worthless.

Modi had promised development for all; and sold demonetisation as the best thing to happen since the invention of wheel. If he could not bring prosperity to all, he definitely succeeded in spreading poverty more evenly by making most of the cash in India redundant.

With each passing day, the misery of the Indian people has multiplied, with families desperately trying to find valid currency notes to pay for schools, hospitals, weddings, burials or simply to buy groceries to keep their kitchens going. A few days after his shock therapy, Modi himself began crying, begging the people to give him a chance.

There was no shortage of officials and experts extolling the virtues of cancelling IR500 and 1000 notes to clean up the economy, control black money, curb corruption and tax evasion. But the public mood had changed within 24 hours. As one analyst put it on Wharton Business School’s website, the demon had started surfacing. The limits imposed on exchanging old notes for new ones resulted in foul moods and short tempers. As always, the poor were hard hit – especially people living in far-flung areas without adequate banking facilities.

Considering that 98 percent of all consumer payments in India use cash, the disruption caused by Modi’s bold action cannot be easily described in words. The Supreme Court of India did not accept pleas to issue a stay order on demonetisation but asked the government to file an affidavit detailing the steps being taken to ease inconvenience to the general public.

Two weeks into the demonetisation gambit, it is also time to appraise Modi’s performance in the first half of his five-year term. A review by Bloomberg says that back in 2014, voters handed Modi the biggest mandate in 30 years, fed up with corruption scandals and soaring inflation. While he remains the most favoured leader, a Pew survey conducted in September 2016 showed that public anxiety is rising to levels before he took office. This is not a good sign as key state elections are scheduled for 2017. The plain truth is that the Modi Sarkar has fallen short of the high expectations of voters and investors that arose from Modi’s lofty election rhetoric in 2014.

According to Bloomberg’s report, a major reason behind Modi’s lack of success is the failure to get enough support from lawmakers and unions to ease rigid land and labour laws. Although India has risen to 130 in the World Bank’s Doing Business ranking from 142, Modi’s target of breaking into the top 50 by 2018 remains distant.

There is a much darker side to Modi’s rule. He has failed to deliver on his promise of ‘development for all’ as there is open discrimination against lower social classes and religious minorities, particularly Muslims. Bloomberg’s post says he has been lacking in leadership to quell pronouncements by his party men that inflame religious tensions across the country.

Viewed from Pakistan, the greatest demonstration of religious intolerance under Modi’s watch is on display in the valley of Kashmir. His silence on the heightened level of repression on Kashmiri Muslims is in line with his acquiescence over the massacre of Muslims in Gujarat under his leadership.

Bloomberg’s review of Modi’s half term recalls that “for the initial year of his term, foreign policy was seen as the unqualified success of Modi’s administration. Virtually overnight Modi went from being an international pariah to the object of affection for global leaders. His policies are being questioned, however, as tensions rise with neighbour and traditional rival Pakistan.”

The latest flare up along the LoC has inflamed public opinion, resulting in calls for a more robust response from Pakistan to India’s targeting of civilians including children. Seen closely, the Indian strategy is aimed at misleading Indian public opinion to believe that the uprising in Kashmir is caused by infiltration from Pakistan and that India’s repeated violation of the LoC is to prevent entry of the militants. Modi cannot hide the truth that the BJP’s policy to brutalise Kashmir has run its course and that Kashmiris are not going to be taken in by his dangerous moves.

World capitals are mostly keeping quiet over Modi’s cynical drive to crush the Kashmiri movement for self-determination. There is palpable anxiety with regard to India’s diversionary tactic of low intensity aggression across the LoC and the Working Boundary. That brings ritual calls to both countries to engage in dialogue.

It is important to understand the method to India’s madness in Kashmir. Extremely proud of his prowess to turn around India’s economy, Modi should not be thinking of an open war, however limited, as that would hurt business and investment. Nobody wants to invest in a war zone. Modi would do well by de-escalating the tensions and re-opening communication channels with Pakistan in the coming months.

Email: saeed.saeedk@gmail.com