Prolonged dry spell forecast to end in January 2017

ISLAMABAD: Persistent dry weather having no medium or high intensity rain would end in the second part of next January which means most parts of Pakistan, especially far-flung areas, are likely to face water and food stress, as current availability of water would not be enough to meet the requirements of millions of people.

Director General of Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) Dr. Ghulam Rasool told The News that given the ongoing climatic conditions, it can be predicted that some areas, including the northern areas, upper parts of KP and northeast regions of Punjab such as Rawalpindi and Gujranwala Divisions, would receive light rains up to 10 millimetres but there would be no rain in any other part till the next January.

“The dry spell will continue for almost next couple of months that would affect the water level in Mangla and Tarbela dams. Most of the water retrieved in mid September and stored in the monsoon season has been consumed, hence no adequate water is available at the moment to meet the requirements of the wheat sowing season,” he said.

Referring to the situation in Balochistan and Sindh, he said both these provinces have not received ‘good’ rains since September and it would be really hard for the people, especially living in far-flung areas, to meet their water and food requirements. “It is due to high water demand and shortage of water, most of the crops in Balochistan and Sindh may not be able to give better yield or it will be difficult for them to survive in extreme dry weather conditions,” he said.

Dr. Ghulam Rasool said when the people would not find enough surface water, then they would turn towards underground water reservoirs and in this situation the water table may fall to an alarming level.

“More stress on underground water reservoirs would be fatal in the long run so the traditional methods of irrigation have to be changed and new/effective methods like sprinkler, drip irrigation be adopted, to avoid the loss of water into the atmosphere,” he said.

Dilating upon the adverse impacts of the climate change he said it is the changing weather patterns and due to unexpected rains or dry spells it is difficult to make proper plans with regard to water and food security in the country.

“Rains come when you do not expect them and they do not come when you badly need them. Only making dams and big water reservoirs is not enough to cope with the adverse effects of the climate change. This problem needs more integrated and comprehensive policies otherwise it would create highly worrisome situation in the country,” he said.

He said the stored water helps protect food security and also fulfills the water requirements of crops during drought period but this time early consumption of most of water from big reservoirs has changed the situation to the disadvantage of the people.