PTI’s lockdown may prove more lethal version of past sit-ins

ISLAMABAD: Can November 2 Islamabad lockdown plan of Imran Khan led PTI --apparently shorter but more lethal version of year 2014 Islamabad sit-in -- be termed a potent political strategy?

Will it win him hearts and minds of public at large? Or convince the undecided to think of the situation as a “defining moment” for the country? With just a year and a half into the next general elections, the big question for the moment is whether Pakistanis at large are convinced?

Or this is just a false flag political maneuver to all those who oppose Imran’s style of politics? And think that the PTI leader wants to occupy the seat of power in Islamabad in guise of agitation against government’s inaction on Panama Leaks investigations.  And that too through semi-intervention of sorts from the establishment, not a full throttle one as his likeminded may naively think. But they have a past precedent that soothes their minds for the event at hand. 

Former COAS General (R) Kiyani’s behind-the-scene efforts to convince the then President Zardari to agree to a timeline for restoration of Iftikhar Chaudhry-led judiciary (and get the same announced by the then premier Gillani immediately) at a time when Nawaz Sharif led long march for restoration of judiciary had reached Gujranwala in 2009, is still at the back of mind of some PTI planners.

The timing is even more lethal in the wake of change of command of the army by November end. But the big question for the moment is whether Imran’s corruption crusade against the ruling Sharifs be equated with the long march for restoration of judiciary. Any body’s guess. But the brigade of retired one to three star retired defense analysts, a regular feature on our television screens, will find enough monologue arguments and spin at their disposal for this purpose too. Public at large definitely have distinct and divergent views.

As a short term measure, despite all the political rhetoric, oratory and moral high ground he claims, the leader in Imran Khan seems engaged in reviving and assuring his popular base of voters and supporters, over and over again. 

For now, the PTI has pushed the bar of demands too high, by design. Now all they want from Premier Sharif to resign or submit to the opposition’s TORs whereby he and family members have to prove themselves innocent of charges in the Panama Papers. 

Instead, the accusers are coming up with evidence to prove the accused guilty in the court of law. Both sides are sticking to their respective stance on the issue waiting for the apex court to come up with a line of action on November 1, merely a day into the announced agitation in country’s capital.

Those who differ with, or oppose, Imran’s political discourse think of his move at hand as a short-sighted adventure aimed at deriving political benefits if he could effectively use the fault lines of civil-military divide on governance issues to his advantage. 

Bring the PML-N government to its knees, or at least push it to the last defensive position. And clip its wings to an extent where it is not in a position to attain majority in the event of next elections, and even come close to securing as much majority it secured in 2013 elections.

As its top notch energy, communication and infrastructure projects will still be in completion mode – a worst fear of PML-N and allies. Come November 2, and they may amass a big crowd (claim 100 K as 1 million) to choke exit and entry points of Islamabad, but the PTI is somehow not able to convince majority of Pakistanis that at this juncture is a defining moment for all of them. Amassing 1 million people in Islamabad is too high a bar for the PTI leader, and the party tiers if ground realities are to be taken into account. 

Rest will be claims and counter claims. Remember Dr Qadri claiming 20-30 thousand people as 2-3 million during his two Islamabad sit-ins in 2013 and 14. Yet, PTI voters and supporters seem convinced. Self assured, to a large extent. But not to the limit to think of it as a soft revolution of sorts.

It isn’t. In fact this can best be described as a less risky, milder version, of a wheel jam cum shutter down strike carved out to secure short term political gains. The whole scheme has its own flip-flops too. PTI doesn’t want to confront people as is required to make a shutter down or wheel jam strike successful. Instead, it is taking some sort of a middle road by choking main exit-entry points to the city.

This approach itself has potential to work for them or fizzle out. Staying power at the scene of main sit-in venue (presumably at a stretch of 3-4 kilometers between Faizabad flyover and Zero point on the Islamabad highway) will however be crucial.

Having an urban core base, no one in the PTI can think of annoying the urban population of Rawalpindi-Islamabad twin cities through tried and tested highhanded tactics of yesteryears – MQM Altaf’s political tactics of the last two decades in Karachi firmly in the back of their minds. That’s why we hear an ambiguous, much less explanatory version of the lock down plan which aims at choking major entry and exit points of Islamabad.  And retreating to the main sit-in point in the event of government action or public outcry, if the exercise enters a long haul.

They may camouflage it for obvious reasons, but in short, the urban elite that consists PTI’s core team has been able to revive the politics of confrontation and opportunism this country faced in the 90s.

And reap windfall benefits if they are able to avail an outside chance to rock PML-N’s boat at this point of time. Nothing more. People who did not vote for Imran and PTI in the event of last elections are still not convinced. And only elections can be a litmus test, if his supporters think otherwise. 

Short of an election, the idea to cripple a government through tens of thousands of people is nothing more than a political adventure.  Hence, the situation at hand can best be described as the PTI’s planned surgical (political) strike at a time of great polarization that engulfs our politics, especially after PanamaLeaks.  In fact, Imran’s political discourse aims at discrediting and dislodging the ruling Sharifs and dent the ruling party and allies morally and politically.  And, in the meantime, reinvigorate PTI’s voters and supporters in case he is able to force an early general election.

Through the painstakingly-risky political maneuver at hand, Imran’s party brings into play the fear factor, uncertainty, at best. It serves well for them for the moment if it is politically beneficial.

The moral aspect of the Islamabad lock down strategy, for now, takes a back stage for the sake of political expediency. Again, the vocal voters and supporters of the PTI would tend to agree with this hazardous strategy too that has many pitfalls. Rest of the countrymen may disagree.