Who threatens global peace?

On June 13, 2025, Israel launched Operation Rising Lion, a risky air campaign deep inside Iran. Israeli jets struck key nuclear facilities in Natanz and Isfahan. The attacks killed two of Iran’s top military commanders, Hossein Salami and Mohammad Bagheri.

While the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) confirmed no radiation leaks, its chief Rafael Grossi called the strike a direct threat to global nuclear safety. His warning was blunt: “grave consequences” could follow, and the world’s non-proliferation system is now under pressure.

Iran’s response came quickly. More than 100 ballistic missiles were launched at Israeli positions and strategic sites. Ayatollah Ali Khamenei promised “harsh punishment”, and senior Iranian officials warned they may withdraw from the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT).

This is not 1981. Back then, Israel bombed Iraq’s Osirak reactor in a surprise attack that set the tone for the so-called Begin Doctrine – pre-emptive strikes to eliminate existential threats. But Iran is not Gaza. It has allies, a larger military and missile power as well as influence across the region. Its retaliation is a signal to Israel and its backers: future escalations will not be one-sided.

And this is not happening in a vacuum. Israel’s war on Gaza continues without pause. Over 55,000 Palestinians had been killed since October 2023, according to Gaza’s Health Ministry. Over 60 per cent of the dead are women and children. The scale of the killing is staggering. On 14 June, another Israeli airstrike hit a US-backed aid site in Nuseirat. Al Jazeera and local medics reported that at least 58 civilians were killed in that one incident alone. Human rights organisations, legal experts and a growing number of Western commentators now describe Israel’s actions in Gaza as genocide.

Just a month earlier, in May, US President Donald Trump claimed he had averted a nuclear war in South Asia. After four days of intense fighting between India and Pakistan over Kashmir, he announced a ceasefire and took credit for “saving the world”. He made that claim more than a dozen times. His tone was triumphant. He painted himself as a dealmaker, a peacebroker.

Then came June. While Israel was striking Iran and bombing Gaza, Trump spoke to Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu three times in fifteen days. Yet there was no ceasefire proposal, no mediation effort, no diplomatic push – not even a statement. The US remained silent. At the same time, it continued providing Israel with weapons, intelligence, and military cover via its network of regional bases – from Qatar and the UAE to Jordan, Bahrain, and Diego Garcia. In practice, this was not neutrality but a green light.

Just weeks earlier, the emphasis had been on diplomacy in South Asia. Now, with Iran and Gaza, there is no diplomacy – only impunity. The US claims that its dozens of military bases in the region keep the peace. But these same bases are now potential launchpads for a wider war. Washington is no longer acting as a stabilising force. It is now viewed as an enabler of aggression.

Netanyahu’s motivations are not only strategic but political. At home, he faces mounting unrest over judicial reforms that many see as a threat to democracy. His response has been to externalise the crisis. Instead of compromise, he offers confrontation. His government has pushed anti-democratic laws, weakened the courts and increased military operations. At the same time, it approved more than 12,000 new settler units in the occupied West Bank in 2024 alone. War abroad has become a tool to silence dissent at home.

India is following a similar script. On May 6-7, it launched Operation Sindoor in response to a deadly terror attack in Pahalgam that killed 26 civilians. Indian forces claimed they destroyed nine militant camps and killed over 100 fighters in Azad Kashmir. Pakistan acknowledged the loss of 40 military personnel and accused India of violating its airspace with armed drones.

This episode reignited fears of open war. In response, Pakistan increased its defence spending by 17 per cent. In South Asia too, military action has replaced dialogue.

India’s internal politics have grown more authoritarian in recent years. Since the revocation of Kashmir’s special status in 2019, the region has seen mass arrests, heavy surveillance, and a constant military presence. The Pahalgam attack took place in an atmosphere of deep repression.

In March 2024, Modi’s government passed the Citizenship Amendment Act and pushed forward with the National Register of Citizens. These laws effectively made religion a test for citizenship. Protests erupted. At least 20 people died. Over 1,000 were detained. Opposition leaders like Rahul Gandhi and Mamata Banerjee accused the government of using state agencies to target political opponents.

The similarities with Netanyahu’s playbook are striking. Both leaders face democratic backsliding. Both rely on majoritarian nationalism. Both use external threats – Iran and Hamas for Netanyahu, Pakistan for Modi – to justify internal crackdowns and military actions.

Their strategic alliance is growing. In 2024, India purchased $2 billion worth of weapons from Israel – drones, surveillance tools and missile defence systems. This partnership has emboldened both governments. It has also forced their adversaries – Iran and Pakistan – to rethink their own doctrines and defence postures.

Prominent voices are raising the alarm. Journalist Mehdi Hasan has said the West has shielded Israel for too long. Economist Jeffrey Sachs argues that abandoning the two-state solution ensures more violence. Former Pakistani foreign minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari calls India’s doctrine a “new abnormal”, where even vague, unverified threats can justify full-scale military operations. His warning is clear: the threshold for war is now dangerously low.

The media in both countries reinforces this shift. Anchors and columnists close to ruling parties cheer on military action, dismiss diplomacy and brand critics as traitors. Journalism has become a mouthpiece for power. Public debate is shrinking, and the space for dissent is closing.

India and Israel are testing the limits of what the world will tolerate. Their leaders have fused nationalism with militarism. They have weakened courts, attacked civil liberties, and turned diplomacy into a dirty word.

The consequences go far beyond their borders. Their actions destabilise entire regions. They send a signal to other authoritarian governments that force works and laws can be ignored. They bring the world closer to large-scale conflict.

It is time for the international community to speak clearly. This is not a moment for silence. Peace requires accountability, not applause for adventurism.

Netanyahu and Modi are playing a dangerous game. The world cannot afford to let them rewrite the rules unchecked.

The writer is former head of Citigroup’s emerging markets investments and author of ‘The Gathering Storm’.