Economic survey FY25: unpacking Pakistan’s provincial pain points

According to the Economic Survey of Pakistan 2024-25 all four provinces posted a surplus. Punjab recorded a surplus of Rs212.2 billion, followed by Sindh with Rs137.6 billion; Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa (KP) also recorded a surplus of Rs112.3 billion and Rs56.2 billion respectively. A 135 per cent increase for Punjab from previous year; 173 per cent for Sindh and over 500 per cent for KP. Balochistan posted a deficit of Rs2.5 billion the previous year.

During July-March FY 2025, provincial revenue also witnessed a substantial surge of 33.2 per cent, increasing from Rs4,802.3 billion last year to Rs6,394.6 billion.

However, the Pakistan Economic Survey 2024-25 presents a dismal picture when it comes to the education, health and agriculture sectors.

Education expense has decreased from already meager 1.5 per cent of GDP to 0.8 per cent. With expenditure on education decreasing in Punjab and KP and only slightly increasing in Sindh and Balochistan in comparison to Economic Survey 2023-24. Punjab’s education expenditure decreased by 22 per cent; Sindh’s saw a measly increase of 5.0 per cent; KP saw a drastic reduction of 78 per cent; and Balochistan a 20 per cent increase. Since the economic survey does not mention development and non-development expenditures separately it is hard to tell where the increase in Sindh and Balochistan was spent.

The figures mentioned in the survey are provisional (from July to March) and are close to those project last year, so a major increase in the remaining period seems unlikely. Things have not been satisfactory for the education sector for a while. In 2021-22, Sindh’s 63 per cent schools had clean drinking water, in 2022-23 it decreased to 58 per cent. In KP, it decreased from 90 per cent to 89 per cent. In Punjab and Balochistan, it remained static at 100 per cent and 29 per cent respectively.

Access to electricity in schools in Sindh was down to 31 per cent from the 42 per cent recorded previously; in Balochistan, it went down to 21 per cent from 22 per cent; and in Punjab and KP, it remained unchanged at 99 per cent and 86 per cent.

According to the previous economic survey that used data from the 2019-2020 period, Pakistan had 32 per cent out-of-school children. Per the latest survey, the number has jumped to 38 per cent. In Balochistan, the number of such children has jumped from 47 per cent to 69 per cent; in Sindh from 44 per cent to 47 per cent; and in Punjab from 24 per cent to 32 per cent. KP is the only province that saw a reduction of 2.0 per cent and its out-of-school children now stand at 30 per cent, the lowest rate among all provinces.

A proper analysis would require a breakdown of what the provinces focused on with the money they allocated: Punjab allocated Rs65.5 billion in ADP FY2025 for 142 projects, focusing on school infrastructure, technology, public-private partnerships and inclusive education. It also launched initiatives like expanding afternoon schools, infrastructure upgrades and IT labs.

Sindh allocated Rs48.03 billion for 713 schemes aiming at infrastructure development, inclusive education and improvement in literacy with focus on shelter-less schools and school environment improvement.

KP, with an allocation of Rs15.26 billion for ongoing and new projects, focused on infrastructure, marginalised groups and curriculum development. Balochistan with Rs48.47 billion in the PSDP FY25 aimed to develop socio-economic infrastructure with a focus on literacy and secondary education.

The survey mentions that in the ongoing financial year, “the provincial governments have undertaken significant efforts to improve the education sector by addressing missing facilities, enhancing physical infrastructure, establishing IT and science laboratories, upgrading primary schools (for both girls and boys) to middle, high and secondary levels, constructing new schools and colleges, and providing scholarships through endowment funds and other financial assistance schemes.”

The Economic Survey 2024-25 provided a summary of the healthcare sector, quoting 2023 figures. It shows an increased life expectancy (67.6 years), higher immunisation coverage, reduced infant and maternal mortality rates. But the health sector expenditure remains low at only 0.9 per cent of GDP, less than even the previous year. Punjab’s health expenditure increased by 22 per cent; KP’s 17 per cent and Balochistan by 42 per cent, where as in Sindh drastically decreased by 34 per cent.

Punjab spend around 32 per cent of its health budget on development; Sindh only 3.0 per cent; KP 10 per cent; and Balochistan did not spend anything on development and its entire budget was spent on current expenditures.

Punjab spent a total of Rs551.88 billion on health, major initiatives included universal health insurance covering over 34 million people, with around 360 hospitals. Increased its health expenditure with a focus on health coverage, hospital expansion and disease control programmes. It also initiated programmes like Stunting Reduction Programme, School Meal Programme, and Nutrition Strategy for WASH.

Sindh’s total expense in health sector was Rs134.16 billion with focus on upgrading health facilities, expanding Basic Health Units, and new schemes. Major initiatives included hospital upgrades, telehealth programs and reduction of stunting and malnutrition under Accelerated Action Plan (AAP).

Khyber Pakhtunkhwa spent a total of Rs143.5 billion on health. The province focused on hospital network expansion, health insurance (Sehat Card Plus), and high-cost treatment coverage and ongoing health and nutrition programmes targeted at reducing stunting and improving maternal health.

Balochistan’s total health expenditure was Rs42.19 billion and major projects included rural health outreach, hospital expansion, specialised health programs like maternal and child health and ‘Health on Wheels’ programme to extend health facilities to rural areas.

Since the economic survey does not provide any data on progress on these projects, it is impossible to gauge their impact, especially considering massive reduction in Sindh’s health expenditure and Balochistan spending its entire budget on current expenditures.

Agriculture is another vital sector; it not just contributes around 19-21 per cent to GDP, but it also employees 38 per cent of the labour force. Thus the ups and downs in the sector directly impact ordinary Pakistanis.

The agriculture sector saw an insignificant growth of 0.56 per cent, far less than the 6.25 per cent in the previous year. What is alarming is the 6.82 per cent decrease in crops, which had shown a remarkable growth of 11 per cent in the preceding year. It is “largely due to the decline in important crops by 13.49 per cent and in cotton ginning by 19.03 per cent”. However, Livestock, forestry and fishery all saw an increase in growth.

Outdated farming practices, water scarcity and climate change impacts as well as water resource management issues, low adoption of modern technology and limited access to credit and inputs among smallholder farmers are contributing to reduced yield.

Surprisingly the survey enlists some of the initiatives taken by the Punjab government in detail like Rs40 billion agriculture machinery rental service, loan disbursement and improving access to finance. The survey does not mention any initiatives taken by other provinces.

According to the 2023 figures shared in the Economic Survey of Pakistan, Sindh’s urban population is 53.7, rising from 51.89 per cent in 2017. Punjab has an urban population of 40.7 per cent and increase from 36.86 per cent. Likewise, Balochistan saw its urban population grow from 27.62 per cent in 2017 to 30.96 per cent in 2023. However, the urbanization rate in KPK decreased from 16.55 per cent in 2017 to 15.01 per cent in 2023, primarily due to the merger of former Fata regions into the province.

KP stands out as the only province where the rural population increased, rising from 83.1 per cent to 84.99 per cent, Punjab experienced the most dramatic rural decline, dropping from 68.7 per cent to 59.3 per cent. Sindh, already the most urbanized province, saw its rural population decrease further from 51.1 per cent to 46.27 per cent, Balochistan maintained a predominantly rural character though with a gradual decline from 76.7 per cent to 69.04 per cent.

In 2024, the highest number of workers who went abroad for employment was 404,345 from Punjab, followed by 187103 from KP, 60,424 from Sindh and 5668 from Balochistan fled the country.

The numbers are significantly lower from the ones in 2023. From Punjab 17 per cent less, Sindh 16 per cent, KPK 10 per cent and 38 per cent less people travelled abroad for work from Balochistan.

Total expenditure under the programme stood at Rs 4,256.02 billion, 3.43 per cent of GDP. “Punjab accounted for the largest share at 31.13 per cent, followed by the federal government at 21.55 per cent, Sindh at 20.27 per cent, KP at 9.76 per cent, and Balochistan at 8.91 per cent”.

Punjab and Sindh spend the highest number of these funds on health and education, with Punjab spending Rs658.7 billion and Sindh Rs454.6 billion in these sectors. KP spent the highest amount on law and order with Rs84.7 billion, followed by health with 74.5 billion. Balochistan too spend Rs93 billion on education, followed by Rs44 billion on health. Punjab and Sindh also spend Rs160 and Rs106 billion respectively on law and order. Sindh spent Rs111.8 billion on social security and welfare, Punjab only Rs7.33 billion.

In FY 2024 (July-March), Punjab led significantly in both the number of loans and the amount disbursed. A total of 232,070 loans were given, including 77,342 to men and 154,728 to women, with a disbursed amount of Rs 10,058.35 million.

Sindh followed with 20,945 loans and a disbursed amount of Rs977.47 million, showing strong participation especially among women, who received 14,191 loans compared to 6,754 for men. KP processed 15,892 loans -- 8,302 to men and 7,590 to women -- and a total disbursement of Rs790.23 million. Balochistan disbursed 3689 loans -- but still contributed meaningfully, with total disbursements of Rs241.51 million.In FY2024-25, like previous year the majority of these IFLs were distributed in Punjab, which accounted for 79.36 percent of the total. This was followed by Sindh with 12.35 percent, KP with 5.54 per cent, and Balochistan with 1.53 per cent.

Pakistan is ranked among the top-most vulnerable countries when it comes to climate change. Rising temperatures, severe heatwaves, floods, droughts, changing rainfall patterns, melting glaciers and rising sea level are some of the dangers faced by Pakistan. It also threatens the country’s food security.

Punjab is experiencing increased temperatures and irregular rainfall, water scarcity and threats to its agriculture. SMOG is also a big issue for Punjab. Sindh is facing severe droughts, floods, and saltwater intrusion. KP has been experiencing increased frequency of floods and glacier melt. Balochistan has a rapidly drying climate and severe water crisis.

The Punjab government approved a ‘Climate Resilient Punjab Vision and Action Plan 2024’ in August 2024 to address the issue. It also launched Health Advisory System for Critical Air Pollution Events, installed 30 new AQMS, ban on single use plastic bags, plastic production tracking system, launched an environmental protection force, as well as green credit programme. EPA upgradation project worth Rs 397 million is currently underway.

In FY 2024-25, the KP wildlife department worked on climate resilience and conservation, generating Rs54.431 million (July-December 2024) through revised permit fees. Fifty-eight waterfowl hunting zones were closed across KP—a first in the province's history. Under the 10 Billion Tree Tsunami Programme, the KP government has achieved the plantation of 121.5 million plants and the rehabilitations of eight million plants in degraded water sheds.

The Balochistan EPA installed one Ambient Air Quality Mobile Monitoring Station during FY 2023-24 and the second one during FY 2024-25. During FY 2024-25, anti-plastic campaign reported a total of 87,791 kg of plastic shopping bags have been confiscated from 24 districts of Balochistan. The establishment of a separate climate change/climate finance cell in Balochistan is currently underway. The Balochistan Environment Protection Agency (BEPA) generated total revenue of Rs 12.3 million through 19 EIAs and 189 IEEs, carried out from July 2024 to March 2025.

In FY25, Sindh had key projects in the pipeline that included expanding and strengthening of EPA, environmental laboratories at EPA buildings in Karachi, Hyderabad and Sukkur along with a planned study on ambient air quality across Sindh.

The Environment Climate Change & Coastal Development Department (ECC&CDD) has done inspection of over 500 industrial units across Sindh and collected over 200 water samples to assess the quality with Sindh Environmental Quality Standards (SEQS).

Nadia Malik is head of Geo News

Election and Research Cell. Momna Tahir is a researcher at Geo News.