The Cholistan Canal Project has once again ignited tensions over water distribution in Pakistan, deepening the longstanding dispute between Punjab and Sindh.
While its proponents argue that the canal will bring much-needed irrigation to the Cholistan Desert, the project threatens to further deprive Sindh of its already dwindling water supply. With the province facing a severe water crisis, any additional diversions from the Indus River could spell disaster for its agriculture, economy and ecology.
Agriculture is the backbone of Sindh’s economy, contributing significantly to Pakistan’s GDP. The sector accounts for nearly 23 per cent of the national GDP and employs over 37 per cent of the workforce. Sindh plays a crucial role in the country’s food security, producing 36 per cent of Pakistan’s rice, 29 per cent of its sugarcane, and 25 per cent of its cotton. Livestock farming, which depends heavily on water, sustains over 60 per cent of the rural population. Any reduction in Sindh’s water share will have severe repercussions, not only for its farmers but for the entire nation’s food security.
Sindh’s struggle for water rights is not new. The 1991 Water Accord was supposed to ensure fair distribution of the Indus River’s waters, but Sindh has repeatedly found itself on the losing end. Farmers in districts like Thatta, Sujawal, Badin and Dadu are already suffering from severe water shortages, forcing many to abandon their lands. Meanwhile, Punjab continues expanding its irrigation network, often at Sindh’s expense. The Chashma-Jhelum Link Canal stands as a stark reminder of these grievances.
Originally intended for flood relief, it has been used to divert water to Punjab, even during droughts, depriving Sindh of its rightful share. Beyond agriculture, the environmental impact of this project could be devastating.
The lifeblood of Pakistan – the mighty Indus River and its eastern tributaries, the Sutlej, Ravi, and Beas – are withering away. Once robust, these rivers averaged a flow of 9.35 million acre-feet (maf) between 1976 and 1998. A mere trickle of 2.96 maf was recorded from 1999 to 2022. The situation is dire below Kotri Barrage, where – between 2000-01 and 2022-23 – ten years witnessed discharges plummet below the critical 8.6 maf threshold. This is the minimum flow experts deem essential to sustain the Indus Delta ecosystem.
This decline spells catastrophe for the Indus Delta. Historically, before the construction of the Tarbela Dam, the delta thrived with 400 million tonnes of sediment nourishing its expanse. Post-Tarbela, this sediment supply has dwindled to a paltry 126 million tonnes. The once advancing delta, growing by 30 meters annually, is now in retreat, with the sea reclaiming fertile lands in Thatta, Sujawal and Badin districts.
Climate change looms ominously over this fragile scenario. A World Bank report warns of a potential 30-40 per cent decrease in Indus Basin river flows as glacial reserves deplete. In such an unpredictable hydro-climatic future, embarking on large-scale irrigation projects is not just unwise – it courts disaster.
The Indus River’s dwindling flow is a clarion call. The encroaching sea, the vanishing fertile lands, and the specter of a parched future demand immediate, decisive action. The time to act is now, before the river that gave life to a civilisation becomes its silent grave.
The federal government’s approach to this issue has only worsened tensions. The prime minister’s reluctance to convene a Council of Common Interests (CCI) meeting, as required under Article 154 of the constitution, has deepened Sindh’s frustration. The CCI exists to resolve disputes over shared resources, yet by failing to address Sindh’s objections, the government is undermining the principles of fairness and provincial autonomy. If such decisions continue without consensus, trust between the provinces will erode further, threatening national unity.
Chairman of PPP Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has strongly opposed the project, warning that any unilateral decisions regarding Indus water distribution will provoke resistance, much like the Kalabagh Dam. He has urged the federal government to take all provinces into confidence, emphasising that imposing projects without consensus will lead to economic and political instability. His warnings carry weight: Pakistan’s history shows that mishandling water disputes only deepens divisions and fuels inter-provincial resentment.
Adding to this crisis is the below-average rainfall recorded between July and December 2024, which has exacerbated water shortages across key agricultural regions. The Pakistan Meteorological Department reported that Sindh and Balochistan received 30 per cent less rainfall than normal in September 2024, further worsening the situation. Southern Punjab also saw significant deficits, intensifying drought conditions. With climate change causing erratic weather patterns, reckless upstream water diversions could leave Sindh, Balochistan and southern Punjab in an even more dire situation.
To prevent a full-blown crisis, the government must take immediate action. Work on the Cholistan Canal must be halted until a transparent, consensus-based decision is reached. The 1991 Water Accord must be enforced strictly, ensuring no province takes more than its fair share. A long overdue CCI meeting must be held to address Sindh’s grievances and uphold constitutional rights. A guaranteed minimum water flow to the Indus Delta must also be ensured to protect Sindh’s fragile ecosystem. Punjab should focus on improving water efficiency through modern irrigation techniques rather than further depleting the downstream supply.
The federal government must decide whether it will uphold the constitution and ensure justice for all provinces or sacrifice one for the benefit of another. The time to act is now, before it’s too late.
The writer is an MNA and a member of the National Assembly’s Standing Committee on IT. She holds a PhD in law.
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