Nepra releases NTDC integrated generation capacity expansion plan 2024

ISLAMABAD: The National Transmission and Dispatch Company (NTDC) has submitted to NEPRA the Integrated Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2024, outlining a strategy to address Pakistan's future energy needs until 2034.

Developed in compliance with the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority's (NEPRA) Grid Code, the plan encompasses a decade-long timeframe and aims to accommodate the country's increasing demand for electricity, including systems managed by NTDC and Karachi Electric (KE).

NEPRA published this report on Friday and sought the public and other stakeholders’ comments. The IGCEP 2024 is the culmination of a comprehensive study, leveraging sophisticated statistical and computational methodologies. It comprises two primary phases: load forecasting and generation capacity expansion, with a focus on dispatch optimization. Three scenarios, based on varying GDP growth rates, have been formulated to anticipate future energy requirements.

Utilizing cutting-edge generation planning

software, PLEXOS, the plan integrates existing and future power projects, policy frameworks, contractual obligations, and natural resource allocations. Sensitivity analyses have been conducted to assess different demand scenarios and potential project delays.

Key highlights of the plan include a significant emphasis on renewable energy sources, particularly wind and solar PV, to reduce reliance on imported fuels like coal and RLNG. By 2034, the base case scenario projects a substantial contribution from renewables, comprising 46 percent hydropower and 10 percent variable renewable energy. Moreover, the plan ensures sufficient capacity from various sources to meet hourly demand fluctuations, including intermittent renewable resources.

The IGCEP 2024 also advocates for structural reforms in the power sector, promoting distributed generation and local manufacturing of renewable energy technologies.

Additionally, it emphasizes the importance of data accessibility and targets for demand-side management and distributed generation.

To ensure cost-effectiveness, the plan stipulates that project costs approved by NEPRA must align with those considered in the IGCEP. Any discrepancies may necessitate project reevaluation.

However, the selection of projects in the IGCEP does not guarantee immediate execution, as they require approvals from relevant government authorities.

The release of the IGCEP 2024 marks a significant step towards achieving Pakistan's energy goals while fostering sustainability and cost-efficiency in the power sector.