Situationer: BAP getting its act together ahead of polls?

KARACHI: The Balochistan Awami Party electing a new president could be seen as a sign that the party will not be completely disbanded but will be kept around in case there is a need to revive it, say political analysts from Balochistan.

On Sunday, Nawabzada Khalid Khan Magsi was elected as the new central president of the Balochistan Awami Party (BAP). The election -- with Magsi as an unopposed contestant -- took place during the central council meeting of BAP in Quetta.

According to reports, the meeting was attended by BAP members including Senate Chairman Sadiq Sanjrani, Sardar Mohammad Saleh Bhootani, Senator Manzoor Kakar, Senator Abdul Qadir, Sardar Israr Tareen, Speaker of Balochistan Assembly Mir Jan Muhammad Jamali. Notably, former party president and former CM of Balochistan Abdul Quddus Bizenjo did not participate in the BAP central council meeting.

With the fate of BAP having been already decided by political pundits -- most of whom had thought the party was pretty much over -- this latest sudden activity in the party could come as a surprise to some. Speaking to a local news channel’s talkshow host on Sunday evening, Khalid Magsi claimed that his election as president was a decision that had been in the works for a while.

Magsi also clarified that those who had spelt the end of the party would have to now rethink their analysis now since “it is clear that it is not [the end]. BAP is a full political party with an office and office bearers”. On whether BAP will be open to seat adjustments with other parties, Magsi said that as a political party “we will have an open mind and talk to all parties and then see”.

Talking to The News, Geo’s bureau chief in Quetta Ejaz Khan reports that Sardar Saleh Mohammad Bhootani of BAP has also said that any idea that the party was over was incorrect: “We are a party and we will be contesting the coming elections”.

Khan also explains that in Balochistan “politicians have their own strongholds. They may keep changing parties but their electoral influence remains. So they will see which party to join based on how they see the centre election possibilities”.

Dawn’s Quetta bureau chief Saleem Shahid tells The News that while “people will go to other parties [from BAP too], that doesn’t mean the party won’t be retained. When the party was formed in 2018, all the electables had come its way. Those who made the party had at the time ensured that electables would come to BAP, and then some independents also joined”.

Shahid feels that “this time too the government that will be formed in Balochistan will be a coalition government like has been the practice in the past as well. I don’t think BAP will be disbanded; they will keep it around so that it can be revived whenever the need arises. They have found a politically influential president for the party -- Khalid Magsi; his brothers are also well placed politically so he has that political support as well.”

How does the electoral calculation work in Balochistan? Shahid says that as far the question is of the PML-N having an advantage in the coming election, “it is not as much about parties as about individuals -- who has more influence from which region. Till now, these electables have not moved to the PML-N but it is being said that they will, probably when Nawaz Sharif or Maryam Nawaz come to Quetta. [Some] BAP people may also move then”.

For senior journalist Shahzada Zulfiqar, who has been observing and reporting on Balochistan politics for a while now, “some BAP members are not leaving the party because of reservations. Internal party people have told me that some people didn’t leave the party because of that.”

As to Magsi becoming the BAP president, he adds: “I think what they wanted was that if BAP remains and gets some seats it needs to be headed by someone who did not create complications later.” There is a context to the ongoing BAP politics as well, says Zulfiqar: “There is also a very serious grouping within the party -- two groups, one led by Sanjrani and the other by Jam Kamal”.

Jam Kamal, according to Zulfiqar, “is very much in the game and all signs and insider information point to him joining the PML-N. In all probability once Nawaz Sharif comes to Quetta, it is expected that other electables will join the PML-N as well.”

So what is Balochistan’s election looking like then? Shahzada Zulfiqar feels that, while BAP looks like it is in a weak position right now, it could be that near the elections some leftover electables could join the party. But for now, the PML-N looks to be in a favourable position to win from Balochistan, with the electables joining it and if it gets some ‘help’ near the elections”. The JUI-F, says Zulfiqar, could be in the second strongest position after the PML-N in Balochistan since “it has pockets of support in the province already and then there is also the factor of nationalists being divided in Balochistan which would help the JUI-F.”