For months, former prime minister Imran Khan had his supporters in the grip of a larger-than-life conspiracy theory: the US had plotted with the PDM and allies to get rid of the PTI government. Ever since the vote of no-confidence was seen as a credible threat to his ouster from power, he and his party had started this well-planned and politically-astute campaign, starting from March 27, 2021, when Imran – then PM – waved a paper in the air and claimed that a foreign-funded conspiracy was behind the vote of no-confidence. A meeting of the National Security Committee (NSC) took place while Imran was PM; the statement released did not mention anything about a conspiracy. A demarche was then sent. But a post-ouster Imran wouldn’t let the cipher story rest. For months he went on and on about it, calling the PDM government ‘imported’, to the extent that the DG of ISPR had to categorically deny any conspiracy. That too was not enough and yet another NSC meeting had to take place, only to say that there was no foreign plot. And then suddenly Imran changed his story and said former COAS General Bajwa with the help of Husain Haqqani somehow convinced the Americans that Imran was trouble and so this conspiracy was ‘exported’ and not imported.
And yet here we are again: the cipher back in people’s imagination, with a story being published by US-based news organization The Intercept that claims it has the text of the cipher that allegedly contains an account of a meeting between Assistant Secretary of State for South and Central Asian Affairs Donald Lu and Pakistani envoy Asad Majeed Khan. The fallout has been as expected: the PTI feels vindicated, the outgoing government feels outraged. The government has reacted as a government would, outgoing Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif saying that if the text is indeed that of a diplomatic cipher then the fact that it has been leaked amounts to a “massive crime”. Meanwhile, outgoing Interior Minister Rana Sanaullah has demanded an investigation into the authenticity of the published document and has also said that if it is found that Imran Khan was somehow involved in leaking the cipher he ought to be tried under the Official Secrets Act. The US has said that any claims of it interfering in "internal decisions about the leadership of Pakistan are false...always been false, and they remain false". Political analysts have also pointed out that the PPP and PML-N had started mentioning a no-confidence motion against PM Khan as far back as December 2021 and there were statements by Bilawal Bhutto in January 2022 about a vote of no-confidence.
What might make this latest report and the reaction to it more interesting for political observers is how little has changed in the ability of regular people to digest such conspiracy talk. Perhaps, that should be somewhat forgiven in light of the actual interventions the US has done, is capable of, and is likely to keep doing around the world. Our cipher however is about a conversation that ideally should not have included such harsh and undiplomatic language by an American official. What it does make most painfully obvious is just how bad ties between the US and Pakistan were during that time. In brief then: the US was unhappy with Pakistan; it used its standing as a superpower to try and get away with inappropriate language that should not have been used; Pakistan did the right thing by issuing a demarche. The tale should have ended there.
Now that the cipher is back in play, is the PTI in a position to even use it as leverage? It would be rather difficult for a party whose leader is in jail. But the timing of the leaked document does raise questions, as does the alarming thought that an official confidential document may have been shared by someone from Pakistan. The timing, the whodunit, and the fact that there is a ‘missing’ copy of this very cipher somewhere out there – Imran Khan had reportedly ‘misplaced’ his copy of the cipher – are matters that will now need a proper investigation. The PTI and its supporters may feel vindicated right now but whoever leaked the cipher – if at all it has been leaked – may just find this boomerang back at the PTI chief, given the amendments made to the Official Secrets Act. The luck of the cipher has favoured Imran Khan till now as far as popularity goes, but in the real cold world of legal troubles, this could be a damning event.
