Bridging the gap

China’s defence chief’s call on Pakistan’s armed forces on Monday to expand their ties with Beijing carried a deeper message than what appeared in the first instance.

Defence Minister Li Shangfu’s statement after a meeting with Pakistan’s Naval Chief Admiral Amjad Khan Niazi, followed a timely visit to Pakistan by China’s Foreign Minister Qin Gang a few days back when he called upon “political forces in Pakistan” to “build consensus, uphold stability and more effectively address domestic and external challenges so it can focus on growing the economy”.

Together, these back to back messages from Beijing could not have been more timely as Pakistan’s political elite battle hard to win space at all costs. Even China with a history of dealing with Pakistan discretely and privately has now come out openly with just one very powerful message: bridge your gap to end the internal political and economic divide that has struck hard at the heart of Pakistan’s future.

In a year when Pakistan’s political rivals need to negotiate an end to their intensifying political fight that is eating away at the country’s future prospects, Beijing’s decision to step in the fray is both timely and potentially frightening. It has coincided with a terrible failure by the ruling structure in Islamabad to honestly face the odds.

The PDM led by Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is a motley alliance of thirteen parties, and appears to be focused on just one goal – to delay the next parliamentary elections for as long as possible.

In the process, the alliance has increasingly defied the Supreme Court which recently ordered elections on May 14 in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, as the ruling structure faces a growing list of controversies one after the other.

In sharp contrast to the Chinese foreign minister’s message seeking Pakistan’s focus on growing the economy, there is a visible failure all around in securing what matters the most – the future of guaranteed bread and butter issues.

Led by Finance Minister Ishaq Dar, the government’s economic team continues to struggle in resolving a discord with the IMF to secure a staff level agreement leading towards the next tranche of about $1 billion under an existing loan programme. Securing the next tranche is essential for Pakistan to also secure adequate funds from other sources.

Notwithstanding Dar’s repeated promise of a resolution to the IMF discord very soon, nothing could be further from the truth. The delay has carried on for months without any indication of a timeline for its resolution.

In the meantime, Pakistan’s finance czar’s tenure has coincided with rampant inflation, tightening of finances across the board and repeated warnings from independent observers of a coming default. Such glaring dangers together highlight fast growing risks to Pakistan’s very future that have now prompted even Beijing to counsel Islamabad in public, to get its house in order.

Going forward, Pakistan’s future outlook is closely tied to trends on three inter-related fronts: First, it is essential for the ruling structure to concede ground and pave the way immediately towards fresh elections. Failure to do so will only fuel the already dangerous uncertainty that has eaten away at the very foundation of Pakistan’s future. It is in the interest of all of Pakistan’s political players and its institutions to ensure an orderly and peaceful transition as soon as possible.

Second, as Pakistan struggles with its fast-eroding economy, it is incumbent upon all of the country’s stakeholders to come together with a comprehensive new game plan for the future. In brief, Pakistan’s domestic resource base needs to undergo a dramatic lift that finally begins to force many of the country’s holy cows to sacrifice for a higher cause.

The idea of the well-funded remaining free of their obligations to pay taxes has outlived its utility. A transition to a more promising future with more stakeholders becoming forced to pay their dues, requires a dramatic political change as part of a tight overhaul of Pakistan’s structure of governance. In tandem, this exercise will also require a major change in the way that Pakistan’s elite have captured vast resources of the state with their continued dominance of the many loss-making government owned companies. The era of such largesse must end immediately.

Finally, Pakistan needs to put together a high-powered team under the proverbial banner of a ‘national emergency council’ to meet the country’s present-day and future challenges. The success of such a body will depend on a two pronged support – the assurance of its independence from influence of any individual or institution, and adequate resources extended to it alongside the authority to enforce hard choices.

As Pakistan’s leaders ponder over the country’s future, China’s public messaging has only exposed a timely truth – that even close friends of Pakistan are finding it hard to ignore the country’s downward slide.

The writer is an Islamabad-based journalist who writes on political and economic affairs. He can be reached at: farhanbokhari@gmail.com