Electricity consumers continue to face massive and frequent load-shedding and outages almost across the country. The urban areas, including major cities, are witnessing power outages for five to seven hours, whereas the rural areas, primarily in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab and Balochistan, have recorded eight to ten hours load-shedding a day. The government claims shortfall of 1,000-1,500 megawatt (MW) in the system, though in reality the power deficit may be at the level of 4,000MW or more. Luckily, rains in some parts of the country during the past week have provided some relief to the consumers as electricity demand receded. The blackouts, however, are likely to resurface in a big way as temperature rises.
Electricity consumers continue to face massive and frequent load-shedding and outages almost across the country. The urban areas, including major cities, are witnessing power outages for five to seven hours, whereas the rural areas, primarily in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Punjab and Balochistan, have recorded eight to ten hours load-shedding a day. The government claims shortfall of 1,000-1,500 megawatt (MW) in the system, though in reality the power deficit may be at the level of 4,000MW or more. Luckily, rains in some parts of the country during the past week have provided some relief to the consumers as electricity demand receded. The blackouts, however, are likely to resurface in a big way as temperature rises.
Power crisis is attributed to a number of reasons according to the federal minister for energy (Power Division) and special assistant to the prime minister on power. These include insufficient supply of gas and coal to thermal power plants, maintenance of Tarbela hydropower station, inadequate transmission capacity, transfer of 550MW power to K-Electric, and unexpected high increase in power demand. Seemingly, none of the justifications could be accepted logically for the present crisis, if analysed. Interestingly, a combination of all these factors would cause a much bigger shortfall than claimed. Surprisingly, there is no mention by the government functionaries of circular debt of power sector. Certainly, supply shortfalls are not due to technical reasons. In essence, the core of these power outages is bad governance and improper policies adopted by the government.
There are three major components of energy situation in Pakistan---electricity generation, transmission, and distribution and system integration, besides energy efficiency, demand-side management and environment issues. The related organisations responsible for ensuring uninterrupted and reliable electricity throughout the country are the National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (NEPRA) as power system regulator, and National Transmission & Despatch Company (NTDC) along its arm National Power Control Centre (NPCC), which is responsible for operation, maintenance of power generation, both primary and secondary transmission systems, and coordination with all stakeholders, including the Distribution Companies (DISCOs).
According to the NEPRA State of Industry Report 2020, electricity generation installed capacity is 35,735MW excluding K-Electric system (38,719MW including K-Electric system). Meanwhile, the nuclear power plant KANUPP-2 of 1,100MW gross capacity has been connected to the NTDC system, increasing total installed capacity to 36,835MW. Generation capability, or available, net and reliable generation capacity, is around 28,000MW. Peak demand ie during summer is 26,252MW. Therefore, power generation capacity or capability, is not the issue, which, in fact, remains surplus. It is however pertinent to mention that in 2019 there was a power deficit of 1,062MW in the NTDC system that was never acknowledged by the government, rather the claims were otherwise. Total installed capacity in 2019 was 35,924MW, generation capability of 26,887MW, whereas total generation was 24,565MW against peak load demand of 25,627MW.
Likewise, installed generation capacity was 39,200MW and generation capability of 28,189MW in 2020. There was a surplus of 1,528MW electricity as 27,780MW was generated against peak demand of 26,252. But this excess power was due to decreased economic activities during the year due to the Covid-19 pandemic. The year 2021 has witnessed revival of industrial and trade activities, and obviously demand is higher than last summer. NTDC had anticipated installed capacity in 2021 as 42,008MW, with generation capability of 30,582MW to meet the growing electricity demand. This did not happen. Pakistan Economic Survey 2020-21 reports 37,261MW power generation installed capacity until the end of April this year. Thus, the shortfall this month works out to be at least 2,000MW even if all power plants operate as per the respective generation capability. There is no considerable change in the electricity consumption pattern. All thermal power plants are required to maintain inventory of fuel for a reasonable period.
Base-load power plants, generally operated throughout the year, provide constant electricity. Coal-based and oil-fired thermal power plants, nuclear power plants and hydropower stations, though generating power on seasonal basis, are categorised as base-load power plants. The peak-load power plants such as gas-based thermal plants, renewable energy units ie solar and wind turbines provide electricity to meet high demand of electricity during a particular period like in summer. Gas-fired power plants are currently operated at significantly lower capacity. Renewable energy units supply intermittent electricity and require back-up power generation capacity. In recent years, old and inefficient thermal power plants like 640MW Guddu (Units 1-4) and 144MW Kotri have been shut down, whereas many renewable energy projects were added to the system.
Historically, successive governments have never focused on developing a reliable transmission and distribution system through upgrading, modernisation and expansion of the existing network. For many years the NTDC capacity remained practically static. It has 5,970km long 500Kv transmission lines, with 16 grid stations and 22,350MVA transformation capacity, and 11,322km long 220Kv transmission lines, with 45 grid stations and 31,060MVA transformation capacity. This is inadequate by any standards to evacuate the required power to the DISCOs these days. The highest ever power transmission was 23,633MW on June 12, 2021. A 660Kv transmission line between Matiari (Sindh) and Lahore is currently in advanced stage of construction in private sector, expected to be completed by September this year. The 886km long transmission line, a CPEC project, will evacuate power up to 4,000MW from coal-based power plants located at Port Qasim, Hub and Thar. The completion of this project will provide some relief to the consumers. NEPRA has also given licenses for establishing special purpose transmission/grid companies in Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, but none has taken off as yet.
Distribution and system integration is in a shambles, which is inefficient, and poor-quality service-provider. Sadly, no attention is being paid to its improvement. Reportedly, NEPRA has come up with the causes for present load-shedding, noting that the DISCOs, all the ten companies operating countrywide, are not drawing the power as per quota given to them in spite of available generation capability. This is not understandable as entire power generation and its transmission to the load centres is controlled by the NPCC, the power system operator, through maintaining balance between supply and demand in the NTDC network. Power generation share is allocated to DISCOs by the NPCC according to load demand. Then, what went wrong? And where was the NEPRA?
Also, scheduling of annual maintenance of all power plants in the country, as well as temporary shutdown of any unit for any reason is being done with the approval of the NPCC. Annual maintenance of hydropower stations is being done during water lean period—ensuring that plant maintenance is completed by the month of April. It is seen that over a period of years, NEPRA, mandated to ensure power system security and reliability, has proved to be a toothless regulator. Operation of power system is regulated under NEPRA’s Grid Code that covers demand forecast, demand management and operational planning. Also, all DISCOs are obliged to provide uninterrupted and reliable power supply to the consumers, under provisions of their licenses obtained from NEPRA. What NEPRA has been doing against DISCOs violating its rules and regulations, and what it is doing now to address the issue? On the other hand, NEPRA has long delayed approval of the Integrated Generation Capacity Expansion Plan (IGCEP) 2020-2047 prepared by the NTDC in February 2019.
In conclusion, power sector is grossly mismanaged. The role of the Ministry of Energy (Power Division) to clear this mess, though critical, is not seen anywhere. Ironically, the Ministry has seen three federal ministers and four federal secretaries in the past three years. There is no permanent managing director of NTDC since long. Most of the DISCOs are being run on an ad-hoc basis without their respective heads on regular basis. It is imperative for the government to improve governance, and to adopt a comprehensive strategy to overcome the challenges ever-growing power demands pose to the national economy.
The writer is retired Chairman of the State Engineering Corporation
