If every country has a national story, Britain’s is that of plucky little Blighty, triumphing against the odds. No other nation would have turned the retreat from Dunkirk into a blockbuster film. Even now, at this moment of maximum peril, extreme Brexiters retain the fantasy that we can still “sock it to them”. It would stick in the craw for us Brits to ask Brussels to stop the clock. But we may have to try.
If every country has a national story, Britain’s is that of plucky little Blighty, triumphing against the odds. No other nation would have turned the retreat from Dunkirk into a blockbuster film. Even now, at this moment of maximum peril, extreme Brexiters retain the fantasy that we can still “sock it to them”. It would stick in the craw for us Brits to ask Brussels to stop the clock. But we may have to try.
Theresa May was never going to get a “good” Brexit deal — no one could. But it is monstrous to claim, as the prime minister did on Thursday, that “this deal delivers what people voted for and it is in the national interest”.
Fundamental questions about the UK’s future trading relationships are to be postponed. The heads of terms we were promised are at present a seven-page “outline” that sets out the “framework for the future relationship” between Britain and the EU — compared with 585 pages on the divorce terms. The £39bn of taxpayers’ money which was supposed to be contingent on getting a good deal has become a downpayment.
When the cabinet met on Wednesday, it was told that the withdrawal agreement could command a majority in the House of Commons. In fact, the numbers are not there. If Mrs May continues to press this case, she makes crashing out of the EU more likely.
The prime minister will do her best, in the next three weeks, by unleashing the follow up to “Project Fear”. Nervous markets and a falling pound will amplify the appalling consequences of no deal. But even this may not be enough to ensure parliamentary approval — and it doesn’t deserve it.
The quality most admired in Mrs May is also the one which could ruin the country: her refusal to change course. The most telling moment of this week came when Michael Gove privately tried to persuade her to give him a free hand to renegotiate if he agreed to become Brexit secretary. She would not budge.
That was a mistake. Not only because Mr Gove is one of the few grown-ups left, a Leaver who has changed his mind about the scale of the task. But also because someone needs to level with Brussels and explain that there can be no parliamentary support without, at the very least, proper clarity on the future relationship.
If the council of ministers cannot provide the detail that, in all fairness, civil servants in Whitehall had been led to expect, then the UK must ask the European Commission to work with us to mitigate the “no deal” scenario — which would hurt all of Europe’s citizens. To sleepwalk into catastrophe is not leadership.
Business fears the government will collapse and let Jeremy Corbyn’s Labour party in. Mrs May is relying on this fear, to spook her MPs. But it’s overdone. Under the fixed-term parliament act, losing a confidence vote does not automatically trigger a general election. Nor would a Tory leadership contest.
If the Democratic Unionist party tears up the confidence and supply agreement that props up the government, it will eventually buckle; it would not be able to pass legislation. But the DUP loathes Mr Corbyn.
Ironically, a second referendum might keep him out of power. Mr Corbyn’s natural instinct would be to campaign to leave, against the wishes of Keir Starmer, the shadow Brexit secretary, and his own backbenchers. That is a split no leader could survive.
In a weak moment, under questioning from hostile MPs, Mrs May admitted that there might be three options: her deal, no deal at all or no Brexit. The choice between her deal and no deal was always a false one. Polls show support for a second referendum gaining ground, as voters who wished politicos would “just get on with it” have woken up in alarm.
There will be heated debate about whether the meaningful vote can be amended by the “Norway for Now” group of MPs. But the spectre of catastrophe might still lead MPs to support Mrs May’s deal on a second vote, as the US Congress supported Tarp, which rescued the banks in 2008.
How have we ended up here? The British public has been deceived, again and again. By Brexiters who claimed we could have our cake and eat it. By a government which skewed the debate to goods, wilfully ignoring the plight of services. And long before then, by an elite which was doing jolly nicely out of globalisation and mass immigration, and wilfully ignored growing despair in parts of the UK.
Mrs May’s defiance this week has garnered respect. She channelled grit, cricket and the underdog: all things we Brits love. She looked like a tireless woman among squabbling schoolboys who want her crown — and some would-be assassins sheathed their ballpoint pens. She will probably win a confidence vote, if one is called next week. But she must change course. If she can get nothing more concrete than a divorce bill then the public must have their say, however painful that will be. For while Britain has lost its empire, it was never part of the story that we would become a colony.
