For the first time, Theresa May has something to celebrate about Brexit. The overnight breakthrough in securing tentative terms for an exit deal paves the way for phase one of the negotiations to be signed off at this week’s EU summit. The deadlock has been broken. Talks about the future UK-EU relationship will hopefully begin in earnest and all sides can breathe a sigh of relief. It has been anything but an easy week for the UK prime minister.
For the first time, Theresa May has something to celebrate about Brexit. The overnight breakthrough in securing tentative terms for an exit deal paves the way for phase one of the negotiations to be signed off at this week’s EU summit. The deadlock has been broken. Talks about the future UK-EU relationship will hopefully begin in earnest and all sides can breathe a sigh of relief. It has been anything but an easy week for the UK prime minister.
She planned to announce this deal on Monday — only for the Northern Irish Democratic Unionists, her domestic governing partners, to scupper it and demand changes to enshrine the sanctity of the United Kingdom. A tense stand-off with the Republic of Ireland raised the prospect of phase one completion being kicked into 2018.
Thankfully, calmer heads have prevailed. The deal itself is much as expected. The UK will pay an exit bill of between €40bn and €60bn. It will have to accept some jurisdiction of the European Court of Justice for the next decade. Northern Ireland will have to follow “full alignment” with the EU if no solution is agreed. Detractors will say it is proof that Britain has capitulated to the EU on all the key issues and has no cards to play. They are right that the bellicose rhetoric has disappeared, replaced with talk of partnership and compromise. During the transition phase, free movement of people and monetary payments to the EU will continue. On Brexit day in March 2019, little will have changed.
To many, it might not feel the UK has left at all. But crucially, Mrs May has brought all Conservatives with her on this journey towards a smoother exit. The Remain wing of her party are relieved that progress is being made. The Eurosceptics are surprisingly sanguine about this deal; one described their reaction as “cautious”; another said “it’s fine”.
The Brexiters are happy to swallow their pride because they are primarily concerned with the long-term future relationship — the next big battle. To them, two years is a blink of an eye compared with the longer aims of “taking back control”.
All the signs suggest that the UK will begin negotiating a trade deal from the basis of Canada’s relationship with the bloc, albeit starting from a place of more regulatory cohesion.
This will indeed offer more freedom for the UK to set its own laws, but also risks more friction with its most important trading partner. Negotiating this will prove much tougher than the exit deal. This will almost certainly not be the last stand-off. Making it through this first stage has been painful for the British, but the trade talks will be even thornier. Unlike the divorce agreement, the EU is in no rush to agree a long-term deal whereas the UK would like this to be done by the end of transition. So Mrs May has little time to celebrate her first major foreign policy achievements. But she can acknowledge that over the past three weeks, real progress has been made.
A “no deal” Brexit has just become a little less likely — as has no Brexit at all. Step by step, the UK is edging towards a gentle exit from the bloc. But the fundamentals remain the same: it is still on track for a soft Brexit with a hard landing.
