INSIGHT
Last month India’s technology hub, Bengaluru, was to be shut down after violent protests broke out over distribution of water. Two people were killed and nearly 200 vehicles were torched in the days of riots that swept across the southern state of Karnataka, of which Bengaluru is the capital.
At the heart of dispute was distribution of water between Karnataka and neighboring Tamil Nadu from the river Cauvery.
The riots erupted in the wake of the decision of the Indian Supreme Court ordering Karnataka to divert some water from Cauvery to Tamil Nadu. The violence prompted Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi to go to twitter appealing Karnataka and Tamil Nadu to resolve their differences over water sharing peacefully. Ironically, Mr Modi is trying not to make water a bone of contention inside his country but he is trying to ignite a crisis over distribution of water outside the boundaries of his country.
Like Cauvery, the distribution of waters of the rivers of the Indus Basin has been a major dispute between Pakistan and India since their independence from British colonial rule in 1947.
Thanks to the efforts of the World Bank, Pakistan and India succeeded in reaching an understanding on sharing of water from these rivers and they sealed a landmark agreement of Indus Waters Treaty on September 19, 1960 over distribution of six rivers of the basin.
Under the Treaty, the waters of the three western rivers – Indus, Jhelum and Chenab – are available to Pakistan while the eastern rivers – Sutlej, Beas and Ravi, are allocated for the unrestricted use by India.
Under the Treaty, India could use 20 percent of the water from the western rivers but would let the remaining 80 percent of water flow to Pakistan unhindered.
The importance of the Indus system for the economy of Pakistan cannot be overstated as over 60 percent of its geographical area, including its agriculture heartland, Punjab, is part of the Indus basin.
Thanks to the development of the basin, Pakistan has the world’s largest canal irrigation system which accounts for more than 90 percent of its irrigated area. Its biggest dams and several smaller ones – major sources of electricity, irrigating and drinking water --are also located in this basin.
Pakistan and India have fought three wars, two of them after the signing of the Indus water treaty but the pact has survived these wars as well as several other conflicts.
Indians, however, now seem to be upping the ante and weighing their options to use this treaty as a trigger for war in the wake of Uri attack near the Line of Control in Indian occupied Kashmir in which 18 Indian soldiers were killed.
India blamed Pakistan for the attack but has failed to back up its accusations with any evidence. However, it has ratchet up tensions to take revenge of the attack from Pakistan which has categorically denied its involvement.
Mr Modi last week also chaired a high level meeting with his government’s officials from the water department as well those from the ministry of external affairs amidst reports that his government is considering to review or scrap the Indus Water Treaty.
The veiled threat prompted Pakistani Prime Minister’s advisor Sartaj Aziz to warn India that any such attempts would tantamount to declaration of war.
Most of the commentators and experts, including those from India, however, maintain that the bombastic statements from Indian leaders are primarily meant to pacify the hawkish elements in India who want to flare up confrontation with Pakistan while in reality India could not do much, at least now, to alter the treaty.
In their view, Pakistan’s arms-twisting over water issue by India is easier said than done.
They say the Indus Water Treaty is a bilateral treaty that was signed under the auspices of the World Bank and there is no provision in the treaty that allows any party to unilaterally walk away from it.
Secondly, they maintain abrogation or amendment as desired by India to squeeze Pakistan could create difficulties for India itself too.
The Indian Express recently quoted Shakil Ahmad Romshoo, head of the Earth Sciences Department at Kashmir University in Srinagar as saying that river waters could not be stopped or released at the turn of a switch as desired by the Indian leaders.
The observers say it would be an insane act on the part of India to take this action, particularly at this time when a strong anti-India freedom movement is sweeping across the held Kashmir region.
It is apparently for this reason that the Indian government refrained from taking any drastic decision on the treaty and wounded up the meeting by postponement of the talks between the water commissioners of the two countries.
The commissioners usually meet twice a year to review implementation of the treaty and also address the complaints of either party in this regard. The last such meeting was held in July.
But despite India’s limitations, experts have cautioned that Pakistan should not take Indian threats lightly, particularly when it had come from their highest level.
They say, in the long run, India could create hurdles in the operation and implementation of the treaty and Islamabad needs to draw up a well thought-out strategy to counter Indian plans.
India is likely to resume its work on the Wullar barrage, which New Delhi calls as Tulbul navigation project, on the Jhelum river. Pakistan has objected to the project saying that it choked the water flow.
The controversial project has been part of the official talks between the two countries in the past.
Indians have also indicated that they would maximize the use of water from the western sources for hydropower generation as well as for irrigation and storage purposes that would ultimately mean cutting down flow of water to Pakistan.
Indians maintain that they use much less than their share of water because of lack of infrastructure like storages and hydropower generation plants in the Indian held Kashmir.
While the construction of infrastructure may take time to complete but any such move by India would send a clear message to Pakistan about bad intensions of New Delhi.
“Right now, it is a political gimmick by India but since the threat has come no less of a person than the Indian prime minister himself then we should take it seriously,” Jamat Ali Shah, the former Pakistani Indus Water Commissioner said.
He said the treaty put “certain restrictions” on India on the use of waters from the western rivers. “There is a possibility that India could violate those restrictions. It may start building storages on these rivers thus restricting flow of water to Pakistan,” Shah said.
Moreover, he said, the Indians could change the timing of the flow of water to Pakistan under different excuses.
The waters from the western rivers mostly irrigate land in Pakistan agriculture hub of Punjab and any restrictions on the availability of water could hurt its agriculture.
“We need water at the time of sowing and maturing of the crops and if India stops waters in those timings then it would be harmful for our crops,” Shah said.
He said Pakistan needs to actively lobby with the influential countries as well as international institutions like the World Bank to plead its case and sensitize them about Indian plans to create troubles for Pakistan.
“We also need to strengthen our vigilance system through the use of satellite technology as well as through better intelligence to check any Indian violation of the treaty and restriction on the flow of water to Pakistan,” Shah added.
Zulfiqar Halepoto, a renowned water expert, said decrease in water quality, increase in demand, and control over water has affected the cross-border political relationship between Pakistan and India.
“The only option for them is to resolve their issues through a one-basin approach, failing which the things would get out of control,” he maintained.
“We have a humanitarian case on the issue of water so we should try to win international support on this ground. On technical grounds, the Indian position is stronger. Therefore, we need to win international sympathies for us on this matter by pleading as a humanitarian issue.”
Pakistan has already been ranked among the world’s most water-stressed nations and any hostile move by India, which itself is a water-stressed country, could complicate problems for it. Some studies suggest that Pakistan could become the most water-stressed country of the region by 2040.
The writer is a senior journalist based in Islamabad
