Population growth in Canada expected to rely fully on immigration as birth rates decline

Population growth in Canada could soon rely entirely on immigration as natural population increases continue to slow, according to experts studying demographic trends.

Based on the federal government’s Immigration Levels Plan, the parliamentary budget officer projects that 2026 could mark Canada’s second straight year of zero population growth.

Recent data from Statistics Canada shows the country’s population increased by about 816,000 temporary and permanent immigrants in 2024.

Natural population growth, defined as births minus deaths was much smaller at roughly 34,000 people.

Dan Hiebert, a geography professor at the University of British Columbia who studies migration, told CTV that Canada may soon reach a point where immigration accounts for all population growth.

“Natural increase in Canada is going to hit zero really soon. Maybe 2029, maybe 2030, give or take, right? And at that point, all population growth is going to be immigration-related, like 100 per cent,” he said.

“It means that wherever the government of Canada, and in particular (Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada), wherever it sets that immigration number at, that’s the amount the population is going to grow. So that’s historically unprecedented.”

A 2024 government report also predicts newcomers could account for all population growth by 2032.