Japan’s ex-PM Shinzo Abe’s killer is set to be sentenced: How much punishment could he face?

Japan's Nara District Court is set to rule on the trial on Wednesday, January 21, 2026, for former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's assassin, bringing to an end a high-profile case that exposed religious exploitation, the dangers of DIY weapons and political ties to religion.

Tetsuya Yamagami is charged with killing the former prime minister with a homemade gun during the influential politician’s campaign rally in Nara in July 2022.

He has pleaded guilty to murder and other charges, including the production of gunpowder and property damage.

On the contrary, the killer blamed his mother and held her accountable for the act, as he claimed that she provoked him to target the former prime minister, whom he regarded as an ally of the group.

One of the key points in the Yamagami case that leaves a debatable question is if the judge will weigh in on the defendant's troubled upbringing and motivations for the attack or not.

How much punishment could Tetsuya Yamagami face?

The 45-year-old, Tetsuya Yamagami, who pleaded guilty to the crime at the trial's opening last year is set to be sentenced on Wednesday.

Prosecutors are demanding life imprisonment, calling the attack “exceptionally malicious” and “unprecedented in the nation’s postwar history,” where there is virtually no gun crime—and the country was left stunned by his assassination.

Seeking leniency, the defense is asking that Yamagami’s prison sentence be capped at 20 years or less, considering he was a victim of religious abuse and arguing that he deserves a chance to rehabilitate and reenter society.

During a three-month trial that opened on Oct. 28, Yamagami recounted a series of tragic events in his life, including the loss of his older brother to suicide in 2015 and his own suicide attempt 10 years earlier, which he attributed to his mother’s extreme faith in the church and the discord and financial woes it brought to the family.

Yamagami also testified that he felt “despair and a sense of crisis” by Abe’s connections to the church, formally called the Family Federation for World Peace and Unification, after watching him contribute a congratulatory video message to a church-affiliated group in 2021.

Following two failed attempts at attacking senior members of the church with a knife and Molotov cocktails in 2018 and 2019, he started making guns himself in 2020.

He confirmed the lethality of his weapons by test-firing them in the mountains of Nara between December 2021 and June 2022.

Yamagami built a total of 10 guns by referring to overseas websites and video games themed on DIY weapons using materials he bought in hardware stores and online.

The Tokyo High Court is expected to rule on an appeal filed by the church, which would finalize the decision, by around March 2026.