US-India strategic cooperation — a threat to Pakistan?

Barack Obama, on assuming office on January 20, 2009, inherited a healthy US-India bilateral relationship from President George Bush. The warming of ties that began in the early 1990s culminated in the bold and unconventional civil nuclear agreement that set aside historical differences over nuclear non-proliferation by giving India access to hitherto prohibited US equipment and technology. After decades of mistrust between New Delhi and Washington, the two capitals discuss more issues than they did. They enjoy almost unprecedented military-to-military relations, holding military exercises with US far more frequently than anyone thought imaginable in the dark days of the relationship. This is of special importance to Pakistan due to its potential of adversely affecting its strategic interests.
The US obviously wishes to embrace India as a partner in containing a rising China, responding to a resurgent Russia and fighting ‘Islamic terrorism’. It is prepared to bend over backwards to secure India’s partnership. India has been offered American defence equipment; military training and intelligence cooperation; endorsement of India’s position on ‘terrorism’; investment, including in India’s defence industries; nuclear reactor sales; support for a permanent seat on the UN Security Council, and a prominent role in Afghanistan after US-Nato withdrawal. The reticence, if any, is likely to emanate from India rather than the US. India is not prepared to relinquish the benefits of its relationships with other power players like Russia, China and Iran. However, last year US managed to dethrone Russia as India’s top defence equipment provider. In larger perspective, Indo-US defence relations are poised to remain on higher progressive trajectory.
It is becoming exceedingly apparent that US-India strategic cooperation is aimed at boosting the range of potency to exert influence in the region. The most proximate impediment to India’s quest for Great Power status remains Pakistan. India cannot feel free to play a great global power role so long it is strategically tied down in South Asia by Pakistan. Furthermore, India wishes to put an end to China’s strategic relationship with and support to Pakistan - a price Beijing is unwilling to pay.
India under Modi has maintained the multifaceted Indian strategy to break down Pakistan’s will and capacity to resist Indian domination. This strategy includes: building overwhelming military superiority, conventional and nuclear, against Pakistan; isolating Pakistan by portraying it as the ‘epicenter’ of terrorism; encouraging Baloch separatism and TTP terrorism (through Afghanistan) to destabilise Pakistan; convincing Pakistan’s elite of the economic and cultural benefits of ‘cooperation’ on India’s terms. In this endeavor, India is being actively assisted by certain quarters in the West. However this strategy’s unintended consequences have been largely ignored, for it has strengthened the nationalists and Islamic extremists in the region.
Islamabad’s vacillation in confronting the TTP was an evidence of this. Moreover, the growing asymmetry of the defence capabilities of the two neighbours has obliged Pakistan to greatly rely on its nuclear assets.
India is concerned that as United States pulls out from Afghanistan, Pakistan will be likely to reap the benefits of gaining access to US military hardware at bargain prices. US finalised the sale of 160 MRAPs to Pakistan just days before PM Modi was scheduled to land in New York. While the inclusion of a potential MRAP sale to India was brushed aside, PM Modi broached the issue of US hardware sales to Pakistan during their meeting.
The growing cooperation between India and the United States has also caused the super power to take a back seat on the Kashmir issue. The dire need to force dialogue between the two neighbors on the core issues is being ignored in present. Since independence, Pakistan has established that for any sort of reconciliation with India will be after reaching a compromise on the Kashmir issue. Ultimately, it comes down to India getting a deal that is clearly not even on the negotiating table with Pakistan. By all facts and accounts, India has been sapping Pakistan’s productive and psychic energy every day for 68 years. With the strained relations between Pakistan and India, support from US for Indian military modernisation is equivalent to weakening Pakistan’s military position in South Asia, directly threatening Pakistan’s very existence.
India had deliberately kept pressure on Pakistan’s eastern border to divert attention and facilitate the escape of terrorist groups into Afghanistan. This is especially in motion after the launch of Zarb-e-Azb. The fact that India cannot openly decide to emulate the Israelis in Lebanon is of great significance. They may be able to make short term tactical gains, getting the satisfaction of killing a few suspected ‘terrorists’ along with many innocent civilians and even occupying a small chunk of Pakistani territory temporarily. But in the long run, the risk of spectacular strategic failure leading to more and bigger terrorist attacks and possibly a nuclear conflagration is great in the region.
Pakistan is almost as strong militarily, if not more, as India. Any reckless adventure by India will almost certainly relieve pressure on al-Qaeda and TTP, strengthen support for Pakistan’s military, weaken its democracy and help in the emergence of a new, powerful, popularly supported resist group in South Asia. This is precisely why great thought should be giving to the indirect and direct consequences of Indo-US military cooperation for weakening Pakistan will only make the terrorist groups stronger. It is opportunity that they seek.