Election for the all-important slot, Punjab Chief Minister, on Saturday would not simply be a contest for ‘Takhat-e-Lahore’ but a battle between two highly influential families - Sharifs and Chaudhrys - of Pakistan’s most populous province. It is also a contest to settle some old scores between the two.
One cannot rule out some unusual happenings even on the day of election as we had seen in the last one week in Punjab. Both have a lot at stake in this crucial battle and whoever wins or loses their political rivalries may not end. These could further deepen at the time of general elections.
Ch Pervaiz Elahi, who is not only a sitting Speaker of Punjab Assembly but was also Chief Minister during the government of former military dictator and President Gen (retd) Pervaiz Musharraf from 2002 to 2007. In fact, he was practically a de facto’ Chief Minister during the PTI government and PMLQ enjoyed absolute power under CM Usman Buzdar as well. Thus, stakes are too high for him and the family as he wanted to be CM till the next general elections.
Hamza Shahbaz, on the other hand, was the leader of opposition in the present Punjab Assembly and is quite confident due to full backing of combined opposition as two important players within PTI - Aleem Khan and Jehangir Tareen - have a number of MPAs with them.
Hamza by default also has a little edge over Pervaiz Elahi after the ouster of Imran Khan’s government at the Centre and his father Shehbaz Sharif replacing IK as premier.
This election has its own political significance because defeat of Pervaiz Elahi here could create double problems for Imran Khan, as on one hand he and his party MNAs had not contested against Shehbaz Sharif and accused him as ‘Imported Prime Minister’, but on the other backed Pervaiz Elahi. What would the PTI MPAs do in case Hamza is elected as CM?
The victory of Ch Pervaiz Elahi would give Imran and PTI a chance to make the politics far more difficult for Sharifs till general elections in Punjab in particular. Therefore, stakes are high for all the political players.
While Sharifs always considered Chauhdrys as biggest political threat within Punjab and had a history of distrust, Ch Pervaiz Elahi looked very desperate to win the battle to take a ‘revenge’ of 1997 when Nawaz Sharif after getting two-third majority agreed on nominating him as Chief Minister backed out, and for the first time Shehbaz Sharif became the CM.
In the post-March 8 political crisis when a vote of no-confidence was moved against former Prime Minister Imran Khan, former President Asif Ali Zardari almost brought both the families on ‘one page’ and none other than Nawaz Sharif agreed on the former’s proposal to make Ch Pervaiz Elahi as CM.
Imran Khan, on the other hand, also had a ‘love-hate’ relationship with Ch Pervaiz Elahi since the day when former military ruler Gen (retd) Pervaiz Musharraf preferred PMLQ over PTI in 2002. Even when PMLQ became part of Imran’s coalition they never went along well until this crisis emerged. And in the end Imran finally nominated Ch Pervaiz Elahi as Chief Minister replacing his most trusted Usman Buzdar.
Ch Pervaiz Elahi accepted Imran’s offer even the combined opposition had agreed to make him CM. Sources said Zardari felt the Choudhrys had stabbed him in the back.
Now, this will be for the first time the two powerful players of Punjab politics would be contesting for this slot with veteran Pervaiz Elahi on one side and young Hamza Shahbaz on the other.
As they say, ‘politics is the game of possibilities and opportunities.’ Today, Imran Khan, who withdrew his support for Gen Musharraf in 2002 after he preferred PMLQ over PTI, is now fully backing Ch Pervaiz Elahi, whom he had nominated CM candidate. And on the other hand, PPP led by Asif Zardari is backing Sharifs and their candidate Hamza Shahbaz. Interestingly, the PPP had a history of political rivalries with both as the two families were actually inducted in the politics to counter Bhuttos.
The political rivalries between Chaudhrys and Sharifs actually revolved around this very post since 90s when they were together in one party - Pakistan Muslim League (PML) - coined by former Punjab Governor late Lt-Gen Ghulam Jillani with complete blessing of former military ruler late Gen Ziaul Haq.
It was in 1997 when Mian Sharif himself assured Ch Shujaat the CM slot, but surprisingly Shehbaz Sharif was given preference and he became Punjab CM for the first time.
The two families finally parted way a year after Oct 12, 1999 coup of Gen Pervaiz Musharraf when in the Year 2002 Nawaz Sharif, under an agreement, left Pakistan for 10 years and they never joined hand.
And the Chaudhrys of Gujrat missed the last chance for patch-up during the present crisis when former President Asif Ali Zardari almost brought them close to each other. Ch Pervaiz Elahi, however, decided to remain an ally of Imran Khan even against the will of Ch Shujaat not to ditch AZ. The April 16 result would set the tone for upcoming politics in Punjab as PTI has decided a big show at Minar-e-Pakistan on April 21.
The writer is a columnist and analyst of Geo, The News and Jang
Twitter:@MazharAbbasGEO
