Change doesn’t come until it’s too late

LAHORE: Since the turn of the century, ranks of jobless have been increasing by 1.5 million a year, population exploding by 4 million annually, and there’s a yearly shortfall of 615,300 new houses that are not being built.

Official statistics on unemployment are deceptive as it includes even those that earn 1/20 of the minimum wage.

Even after that we are unable to provide employment to half of the 3 million population over 14 years that enters the job market every year. In fact, the number of persons attaining the age of 14 are 4 million/year, but of the 2 million females only half look for a job.

Logically the unemployment rate should increase every year as 50 percent do not get work. But these 1.5 million may get engaged for a few days or a month and are classified as employed in our statistics.

Why successive governments are running away from reality.

Pakistan is facing a housing deficit of 10 million which means 65 million are living in slums or as nomads. We hardly build 500,000-600,000 houses a year, most of which are constructed by the affluent class. The share of the slum dwellers in new houses is barely 5 percent. The low-cost housing scheme of the government is out of reach of the poor as some amount must be deposited upfront that most do not have.

We need to devise policies that fully exploit the potential of our economy. Pakistan is a big country, and its population is larger than the five most affluent European nations. All the regions of the country are integrated in such a way that they make a common market with total freedom of movement, investment, trade, and commerce within the territories of Pakistan. This has created a single economy in Pakistan and is a great equaliser of opportunities for the people of this country.

According to a World Bank study Sindh is the richest province of the country, while Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is the poorest.

The difference in per capita domestic product between Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is less than 30 percent. The difference between the richest and the poorest regions of Vietnam is 200 percent and in India it is over 40 percent.

The planners should take advantage of this situation and implement policies that ensure inclusive growth.

Agriculture has the potential to take Pakistan to the next level. Cotton is a crop that needs quality seed. The state must arrange high-yielding seed from any of the multinational companies, till local varieties are approved.

With assured high-yield the cotton cultivation area would increase. Currently Pakistan is importing $1.5 billion worth of cotton.

The cotton area encroached by sugarcane must be reclaimed. We will save a lot of water and any shortage of sugar could be compensated with imports that won’t cost more than $500 million. Higher cotton production would boost our textile exports because the best denim fabric can only be produced from Pakistani cotton.

Pakistan should also look beyond textiles if it wants to eradicate poverty. It is unfortunate that the government views engineering, electronics, and pharmaceuticals luxury industries and has been actively trying to scuttling these sectors through, interest rates, duties and high sales tax. These are sunrise industries and are the future of Pakistan.

These sectors have grown by feeding on domestic consumption and gradually achieved economies to launch their products in global markets, which makes them the future engines of growth. The government has no other choice but to take them under its wing, if it really wants the economy to make it to the next level.