After the war

Offering predictions about what will follow the Russia-Ukraine conflict is probably a foolhardy exercise, but here are a few thoughts that might engender further speculation and discussion.

First, after the Ukraine crisis is resolved we’re likely to see a self-congratulatory period in Washington over its temporarily forcing Western European nations into a closer integration with US imperialism, guaranteeing more European purchases of US weapons and giving an immediate boost to Pentagon spending. The United States will portray the Russian Bear as intent on gobbling up more European countries and every effort will be made to ignite Cold War, Phase 2. These efforts will fail, and much to the consternation of the American oligarchy, the dissolution of a unipolar world will continue apace.

In fits and starts, perhaps for 2-3 years, Europe will gradually move away from the United States as mutually beneficial relations with Russia, and especially with China, prove irresistible. European big business is not inclined toward class suicide and as international relations analyst Michael Hudson has asserted, there’s a limit to how long they will forego the immense opportunity costs – the costs of lost opportunities – of trading with Russia as the price for their continued obedience and vassalage to US geo-strategic ambitions. Meanwhile, Washington will step up its frantic push to militarily encircle China, its primary foe.

Second, acclaimed scholar Alfred McCoy predicts that the United States as the world’s sole superpower will be eclipsed by China by around 2030. This projection is confirmed by several hard-headed, objective analysts, including the accounting firm PxC (also cited by McCoy), which now calculate that the Chinese economy will be 60 percent larger than the United States’ by 2030. The period leading up to this rough demarcation line will be exceedingly dangerous because, as opposed to some past empires, it’s far from certain that the United States will make a graceful exit from center stage. There is the possibility that in its death throes, the American empire, like the thrashing, violent extinction of the Tyrannosaurus Rex, will take down much of the world with it.

Third, those living in the belly of the beast are likely to witness their rulers attempting to employ surrogates as boots on the ground to resist changes in the existing world order, perhaps commencing when Russia and China began trying to expel US bases near Taiwan and in the South China Sea.

These tactics will not succeed in stopping China from attaining, at least, parity with the United States. Barring the unthinkable introduction of advanced weapons systems, the call may go out again for US troops to be dispatched to faraway places. Should that happen, one hopes that a strong, rekindled anti-war movement arises with the prominent organizing slogan, ‘No More Deaths for Nothing’.

Excerpted: ‘What Happens After the Russia-Ukraine Conflict?’ Courtesy: Commondreams.org