The graveyard of empires beckons

Afghanistan is an extremely difficult country to govern as various empires and invaders bear testimony to this bitter truth—thus the label of “The Graveyard of Empires.” The United States and its allies are the latest to depart from this necropolis of invaders in ignominy. The British learned it in their 1839-1842 war in Afghanistan, Soviet Union was taught this bitter lesson during its decade-long invasion from 1979 to 1989 and had to beat a hasty retreat. Two decades after its occupation of the US supported by NATO troops, the Western allies too suffered tremendous losses and withdrew.

The main factors that contribute to Afghanistan being a challenge to govern are its complex geopolitical playground as it remains one of the world’s fiercest battlegrounds. The primary aspect is its location, being situated on the main land route between Iran, Central Asia, and India. Secondly, because of the frequency of invasion and the prevalence of tribalism in the area, its lawlessness led to a situation where almost every village or house was built like a fortress. Thirdly, the physical terrain of Afghanistan makes conquest and rule extremely difficult, exacerbating its tribal tendencies. Afghanistan is dominated by some of the highest and jagged mountains in the world, which include the Hindu Kush, which dominates the country and runs through the centre and south of the country, as well as the Pamir Mountains in the east. The Pamir Knot — where the Hindu Kush, Pamir, Tian Shan, Kunlun, and Himalayas all meet is situated in Badakhshan in northeast Afghanistan.

The latest country that is considering entering the quagmire of Afghanistan is China. The drawdown of US and NATO troops from Afghanistan aggravated the situation as the Taliban moved swiftly and have staked claim to more than 85 percent of the war-ravaged country and Kabul’s fall is imminent.

The question arises why China may be the next great power to get embroiled in the ‘graveyard of empires’? The rationale may be that instead of trying to satisfy any geopolitical ambitions, Beijing is carefully preparing to fill the void left by the US.

China is learning from the errors of the great empires, and is apparently pursuing three main objectives in Afghanistan: Avoiding a further expansion of the conflict and all-out civil war, promoting intra-Afghan negotiations, and preventing the rise of terrorist forces and activities.

While the Occident may have failed in establishing energy sources, communications and security infrastructures in the last two decades, China perceives Afghanistan as a vital link in its Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) and its flagship project the China-Pakistan Economic Corridors (CPEC). Velina Tchakarova, in her analysis ‘Will China get embroiled in the graveyard of empires?’ mentions specific strategic projects in Taxkorgan, Wakhan, and Gwadar being of immense importance. She informs that the construction of Taxkorgan Airport on the Pamir Plateau in the northwestern Uighur Autonomous Region of Xinjiang is a significant long-term investment, as Taxkorgan is “China’s only county-level city bordering three countries—Tajikistan, Pakistan, and Afghanistan”. China and Afghanistan share an 80-kilometre (km) border with the Wakhjir Pass, which is the only potentially navigable pass. However, there is no road connection to the pass on the Afghan side. A potential investment would be to create a direct link to Afghanistan through Wakhan and Little Pamir as part of the BRI, thus revitalising the Silk Road in Afghanistan through the Wakhan Corridor.

One of the motivations could be that Beijing considers the Wakhan a potential infiltration route for residents in Afghanistan, who could wreak havoc through terror activities in Xinjiang. Following the US withdrawal from the war-torn country, China may invest US $62 billion in Afghanistan through the BRI.

Inclusion of Afghanistan in CPEC’s wide array of projects involving highways, railroads, and energy pipelines between Pakistan and China and the port of Gwadar could provide economic incentives through a direct land connection with Pakistan. Velina Tchakarova opines that concrete projects can be developed under the “Digital Silk Road, the Sino-Afghanistan Special Railway Transportation Project, the Five Nations Railway Project, and a Kabul–Urumqi air corridor”. Currently, China is Afghanistan’s second-largest trading partner (US $1.19 billion), but it can significantly increase its trade volume through its direct land connection with Pakistan. Talks on the construction of a main road between Afghanistan and the north-western Pakistani city of Peshawar indicate this may be the first major project within CPEC in the near future.

In a previous Op-Ed titled ‘Taliban’s meeting with Chinese leadership’ published in the same space on August 2, this scribe had provided the rationale for Chinese State Counsellor and Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s meeting with Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar, the Taliban number two. China had asked the Taliban to “completely sever all ties” with the group to promote regional stability. Based on its concept of the ‘three evil forces’ of extremism, terrorism, and separatism, China is committed to cracking down on any activity that threatens to turn Xinjiang into a hotbed of extremism and terrorism, including the Islamic Movement of East Turkestan. Beijing is likely offering economic incentives to the Taliban to guarantee their support for its New Silk Road project in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

Finally, Chinese economic investments in Afghanistan will potentially grow with Beijing’s interest in Afghanistan’s unexploited reserves of copper, coal, iron, gas, cobalt, mercury, gold, lithium, and thorium. According to a geological study, Afghanistan has reserves of rare earths and minerals estimated at up to US $3 trillion. The war-torn country may have 60 million tons of copper, 2.2 billion tons of iron ore, 1.4 million tons of rare earths (lanthanum, cerium, and neodymium), and deposits of aluminum, gold, silver, zinc, mercury, and lithium. This rationale will necessitate Beijing seeking to secure and protect its future investments and major infrastructure projects.

China’s close relations with Pakistan and Russia will be beneficial for Beijing in securing a foothold in Kabul. Perhaps a civil war in Afghanistan can be avoided with China, Russia and Pakistan brokering peace. The path ahead in Afghanistan is thorny but with credible partners, China may avoid falling in the abyss of chaos and mayhem.