UK unlikely to see a return to lockdowns: Sage scientist

LONDON: The UK is unlikely to see a return to lockdowns and school suspensions even though winter will be “rough”, a Government scientific adviser has suggested.

Calum Semple, a member of the Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) and professor of child health and outbreak medicine at the University of Liverpool, said he thought measures such as mask-wearing could be reintroduced over the winter to deal with a spike in Covid cases.

It comes as a fellow Sage member, Professor Graham Medley, said mask-wearing “probably won’t do any good” unless it is mandatory, adding that the current Covid wave could last six weeks at its peak.

Speaking in a personal capacity, Professor Semple said the “winter bump” of Covid cases would be “miserable” due to a mixture of Covid-19 and the respiratory viruses that have not been seen for the last year as people stayed at home.

Asked on BBC Breakfast whether restrictions would come back, he said: “Possibly, and it may just be about reinforcing some common sense. “It may be bringing back some mask-wearing in certain environments, but I don’t foresee the lockdowns or the school suspensions that we’ve seen.”

Prof Semple said he thought “there’s no right time to unlock” but suggested it was “quite realistic” that there could be up to 2,000 hospital admissions per day, as predicted in central modelling assumptions submitted to Sage.

He added: “My big message to people now is sure we’ve weakened the link between community cases and hospital cases, but that link is not broken… it’s the people that are not vaccinated that are still coming to harm.”

Of the people currently going into hospital, he said: “They’re nearly all unvaccinated, and what’s surprising is that although they’re not dying, they are suffering quite a lot of injuries, so we’re seeing a lot of kidney injuries and lung injuries in these younger people.” Prof Semple added that he would continue to wear a face mask “particularly in enclosed areas”.

Meanwhile, Prof Medley, from the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine, said the summer peak of coronavirus, which is predicted to hit next month, could last six weeks.

He told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme: “We’ve never seen a peak before that hasn’t been controlled. The intention is not to introduce a lockdown for this peak. Then we are going to see a natural peak and that may well be long and disseminated.

“So even if we don’t get up to very high numbers, the numbers that we get up to might last for several weeks, six weeks or so, in which case there’s still a considerable burden on healthcare.

“So, although we might not get over 2,000 admissions a day, if that lasts six weeks then that’s a lot of people.” Prof Medley said mask-wearing “probably won’t do any good” when the Government ends the legal requirement for the protection in England on July 19.

“I personally will wear a mask to protect other people,” he said. “I think it’s quite a reasonable thing to do, it doesn’t have a huge imposition in terms of economic impact or in terms of freedom, and I think there is evidence to suggest it does good, but only if everybody does it.

“So I think that, without the mandation, then we end up with a situation where even if the majority of people, let’s say 70 percent of people, wear a mask, will that actually do any good because of the 30 per cent who don’t?

“I think that is something which still needs to be determined and discussed.

“I understand the Government’s reluctance to actually mandate it. On the other hand, if it’s not mandated, it probably won’t do any good.”

Professor John Drury, social psychologist at the University of Sussex and a member of the Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Behaviours (Spi-B), also told LBC radio of his concerns that the legal requirement to wear masks is being ended.

Elsewhere, a World Health Organisation special envoy on Covid-19 warned it was “too early to be talking about massive relaxation or freedom” despite the UK’s rollout of vaccines.

On Monday, Prime Minister Boris Johnson confirmed that most mandatory restrictions will end next week, though he appealed to people to proceed with caution, adding that the pandemic “is not over”.

Modelling for Sage shows that the peak of the third wave of Covid infection across England is not expected before mid-August and could lead to 1,000 to 2,000 hospital admissions per day, with deaths at 100 to 200 per day.